Categories
Community Defense Prepare Tactics & Strategy

Now What?

The world is going to hell in a handbasket. What can a single person do? In a word, Persevere.

“Perseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages.” George Washington

Take Action

  1. Work to be self reliant
  2. Read the constitution of the USA 2x
  3. Plant a garden, then try perennials (apples/berries), then chickens, then the four footed critters.  Know where your food comes from and how to get it yourself if necessary.
  4. Team up and attend EVERY public govt meeting. Stick your nose into everything. School boards, election commissions, town, village, city, county, state or federal. Show up.  The soldiers who died on Normandy beaches showed up, the fireman and police who died in the line of duty showed up.  The least we can do is sit through some crappy meetings and speak up.
  5. Run for office. Get out there or at least help someone on your team get out there and represent us.  We won’t agree 100% of the time, we might even fight but we will support the rule of law, the US Constitution and freedom without question.
  6. Work to eliminate any rules, laws, policies or standards that do NOT comply with the US Constitution and State Constitution.  
  7. Vote with your $. Buy local. Buy products and services that build up the Country.
  8. Team up, build up your community, work together, work with your church and community centers. Look out for your neighbors, take personal responsibility.
  9. Get your family and friends (your team) to do take action, and review this list.

“If you are going through hell, keep going.” ― Winston S. Churchill

Ensure Communications

  1. Assume EVERYTHING you do electronically or near electronic devices is watched. But don’t stop speaking.  Speak like you are telling a million people something.  Speak honorably, openly and freely.  If you are getting shut down- find a way to speak.  Choose your words.
  2. Get Signal (smartphone app) and/or Viber on your Smartphone, and make sure your friends and family have it. It is also FULLY encrypted but Signal and Viber use data (internet) for texting and voice, so it will increase your data plan if you pay per GB for data. I do not recommend Telegram because not all communications are encrypted.
  3. Use freedom loving Social Media Gab & Parler (if it ever recovers). If you get locked out of Facebook or Twitter – consider leaving those services permanently.  Even if the app is blocked, you can go to the websites. I no longer recommend MeWe because they are banning specific political groups.
  4. Create 3 or more unique emails. 1st for junkmail/registrations.  2nd for friends and family and 3rd for banking/payments etc.  
    • Use Hotmail, Yahoo or such for your 1st junkmail (when vendors force you to register using an email).  
    • Consider secure services like: Protonmail, Tutanota, CounterMail or Posteo (europe) for 2nd and 3rd email addresses.  
  5. Turn on two-factor (two step) authentication for your phone, email, social media, banking etc.  Two-factor is absolutely necessary. Turn it on ANYWHERE you can.  If you don’t know how, ask your friends and family. Get everyone to use it.
  6. Use LastPass Family (cheap) or Keepass (free) to manage your passwords.  Set different passwords everywhere don’t reuse them. Longer passwords (pass phrases) like “I want 2 drink beer!” are harder to crack and easier for you to remember – customize them to something specific to you.
  7. Remember to cancel every account you are not using (credit cards, social media, services, email, etc)

“We Mutually Pledge To Each Other Our Lives, Our Fortunes, and Our Sacred Honor.”  Learn where the quote is from.

Stock Up

  1. Ensure you have a minimum of 6 months of Food, water, meds – rotate it for use.  Even if nothing bad happens you will have food if there is a power outage or you get laid off.
  2. Get Multiple first aid kits and learn how to use them (one in each vehicle)
  3. Get rechargeable AA and AAA batteries and a charger.  They will cost more money up front but save you $ in the long run. https://commonsensehome.com/best-battery-chargers/
  4. Household supplies
    • Purchase Heavy duty long lasting clothing, boots, shoes, jackets.
    • Warm blankets, wool blankets – in case you have to camp in your house
  5. Have a way to cook without electricity  
  6. Get $1mil in identity protection – or at least block new credit so you are less likely to be the victim of identity theft.
  7. Create a get home bag for each vehicle. https://commonsensehome.com/bug-out-bag/
  8. Get at least 2 of everything that is critical (one is none, two is one) and standardize wherever possible.

Here are ways more stock up related items:

Try to get at least 2 people in your group to do the following

  1. Get a HAM radio license – a cheap good handheld is the BaoFeng BF-F8HP.  If you can afford it and have the space purchase a base station with a large antenna and base station.
  2. Get first aid training. https://www.firstaidforfree.com/
  3. Learn to hunt
  4. Learn to fish
  5. Get your conceal carry license.  Focus on small lightweight pistols you can carry every day, and practice, or don’t get a pistol.  
  6. Start Beekeeping
  7. Learn trades: welding, forging, plumbing, electrical, etc.
  8. If you have these skills, TEACH SOMEONE.

Why?

Many of us are military veterans, or served in another way: police, fire, teachers, healthcare or just volunteered in the Cajun Navy.  We may or may not have sworn the oath.  If you haven’t said it, say it to your family – say it out loud to each other – and keep it.

I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.  I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same. I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion;

I will act in good faith working to improve the lives of everyone in all situations, respecting the sacrifices of those who died before me;
So help me God.

If you feel alone or outnumbered, remember

‘Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed, citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.’ — Margaret Mead 

In dark days, remember these words 

“Perseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages.” ― George Washington

God Bless – and even if you don’t believe in God, take action that will leave a positive legacy.

Signed,
James Franklin, Great, Great, Great Grandson of Silence Dogood 

Related Post: https://wearethebackupplan.com/declaration2021/

Last updated 1/8/2021

One last quote – it is worth re-reading…

“If you can keep your head, when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies, Or being hated, don’t give way to hating, And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise

If you can dream – and not make dreams your master; If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim; If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster And treat those two impostors just the same;

If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools, Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken, And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools

If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew To serve your turn long after they are gone, And so hold on when there is nothing in you Except the will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue, Or walk with Kings – nor lose the common touch, If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run, Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it, And – which is more – you’ll be a Man, my son!”
― Rudyard Kipling

Categories
Tech

Alternate Search Engines

Here is a list of the top search engines on the internet.

Independent Search Engines

  1. Googlehttps://www.google.com/ The defacto champion. Tracks EVERYTHING and changes search results based on your search and location
  2. Bing https://www.bing.com/ from Microsoft – Changes results based on your search 
  3. Yahoo https://www.yahoo.com/ Microsoft Owned (but different than Bing) Changes results based on your search
  4. DuckDuckGohttps://duckduckgo.com/ Has it’s own independent search services including its own crawlers. 
  5. Metager https://metager.org/– is a decent German based independent search engine. Warning DO NOT GO TO METAGER DOT COM it appears to be malware or at least adware.
  6. Ask.com https://www.ask.com/ (was AskJeeves) – is an independent search engine, but appears to have the same prioritization of big pharma, politics etc. as Google.

All Search Services

Some of the following are just repackaged versions of the search engines noted above. One standout is SearX.info which allows you to pick which search engines to use.

  1. AOL.Com uses BING
  2. Ask.com (was AskJeeves).  It is an independent search engine.  It’s results prioritization are similar to google for big pharma, politics etc. 
  3. Bing is a Microsoft Search engine that is used by many other sites and search engines
  4. CC Search https://search.creativecommons.org/ – great for finding copyright free material search (not full search like google or Yahoo)
  5. Dogpile – AGGREGATOR – It provides results from other engine results
  6. DuckDuckGo – Has it’s own independent search services including its own crawlers.  *Recommended
  7. Ecosia – Based on  Bing (supports planting trees)
  8. Gibiru –  appears to be google without tracking
  9. Google – The defacto champion. Tracks EVERYTHING and changes search results based on your search and location.  They know everything about everyone.
  10. Infospace – AGGREGATOR- uses results from other search engines
  11. Metager – is a decent German based independent search engine 
  12. OneSearch – Associated with Yahoo
  13. Peekeir –  secure alternate search of Bing *Interesting
  14. Qwant –  secure alternate search of Bing *Interesting
  15. Search Encrypt –  appears to be google without tracking
  16. search.disconnect.me –  uses duckduckgo engine
  17. SearX.info – AGGREGATOR – A very interesting search tool that lets you PICK which search engine results you want to show from multiple engines.  Also the source code is PUBLIC, so you can make your own version.  Not an engine but more of a aggregator *Interesting
  18. StartPage –  uses google 
  19. Swisscows – (was Hulbee) is Bing driven  
  20. Teoma – Uses Ask.com – has had issues with hacking tools named the same
  21. Yahoo – Microsoft Owned (but different than Bing) Changes results based on your search
  22. Yandex – Russian * use at your own risk *NOT RECOMMENDED*

Stay safe on the internet. Turn on two-factor (two-step) login wherever you can. Use passphrases. Use a password management tool like Lastpass Family or KeePass. Put a PIN/Password on your smartphone. Consider $1mil in identity protection. Don’t install software unless you are 100% sure you need it.

Related Links

Categories
Community

Declaration 2021

Preamble

Brothers and sisters, patriots all.  I write to you in a moment of turmoil.  We are at a moment of change. We feel the storm but can’t see it clearly.  We see the edges.  I am not a leader, prophet or guide, but I am going to voice what I think you all know.

We are at a crossroads.  I don’t know know what strength is left in me, but I swore an oath, as many of you have; either directly or in spirit.

I swore to protect and defend this great nation, but more than that to protect its ideals. As our forefathers said, we pledge to each other our lives, fortunes and sacred honor.  There is nothing more.  We all are dust in the end, so our only mark is doing what is right and just so we can be judged well by time and God.

We need to do what each of us knows in our hearts and souls must be done.  Prepare, be vigilant.  Those before us died to create this nation and then protect us all, during the civil war over 600,000 of us died to ensure equality was enshrined in law.  We grew to the greatest power in the world through trade, not conquest. We saved the world from a great evil in WWI and again  in WWII.

We are at a crossroads again. We all need to prepare in the way that we KNOW we should.  We ARE the backup plan. There is no one else.

I have had an epiphany.  It has struck me that we are in a fight, a war even.  We have a history of responding during hurricanes and flooding.  But we need to do something even harder.  We have to engage in self governance. 

For me it would be easier to return to being a soldier, but that is not what is needed now.  The better and more permanent solution is to engage in politics.  The thing I don’t want to do, the activity I despise, is likely the most important thing for EACH of us to do.

So I challenge myself and everyone else. Volunteer, go to school board meetings, town boards, city boards, state and federal public meetings.  I suspect you would rather take a bullet than deal with politicians, but that is the lot we are left, and duty laid at our feet.  We must accept that discomfort and embrace to respect the soldiers, nurses, firemen, miners and farmers who came before us.

Prepare in the way that makes sense to you. BUILD the bright future you know was in the mind of that soldier or cop when they died.  We have debts to pay.

Get a HAM license, coordinate tracking of public meetings and make sure at least two reps are at every single public government meeting.  If you are locked out, let a group know and get 10x more people to the next meeting. Set up public meetings for like-minded people. 

Respect the men and women in the military, the people who broke the ground and built the roads.  The people who gave sweat, blood and tears to create and protect this nation. Respect them by invoking yourself in public discourse. Attend government meetings – as many as you can. 

Run for local office.  We all do not need to agree on everything OTHER than the constitution, the rule of law, and freedom.  Limit yourself to 2 terms in each area.  Target EVERYTHING – school boards, zoning commissions, towns, cities, counties, state and even federal.  Read the constitution.  Read the Federalist Papers and the Constitution.  Understand the greatness of America.

We are overcome by evil OR we overcome evil.  We must take the LONG challenge of rebuilding what we know must be, brick by brick.  

That means working at every single level of government.  We MUST take the stand and be relentless in our commitment because EVIL is relentless. We have seen it in Nazi Germany, Cambodia under Pol Pot, China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba and 100 other times throughout history. 

The only thing that stops evil is good standing up every single time.  We have worked hard, we have built prosperity, we have worked to permit all perspectives.  We did make a mistake we allowed equality between good and evil.  That must stop NOW and must be corrected for the next 100 generations.

Re-Constitution

The authority of state and federal government comes from we the people, and in that role we demand change.  The US state and federal governments have no innate authority or rights.

We recognize that above ALL law, that all people are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. 

We are at a tipping point, where our current form of government denying freedoms and our inalienable;’ rights of Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

The current government is partly or wholly incapable, or intentionally complicit in taking actions against the Constitution of the United States of America, against the Laws of Nature and of ultimately against the laws of God.

This must change and to make this change, we declare the following.

The federal government has no constitutional authority to perform following actions and must immediately eliminate such activity.  The government will affirm the citizens inalienable right to:

  • Freedom of Travel, specifically cease all unconstitutional lockdowns, specifically illegal bans on travel
  • Self employment or the employment of others
  • to perform services that have no life safety risk (permits contrary to this requirement must be abolished)
  • *Eliminate restrictions on freedoms of speech and freedoms of assembly
  • *Eliminate ANY and ALL rules, laws, decrees or other administrative rules that interfere with freedom of religion and religious gatherings.  Restrictions of said are wholly unconstitutional
  • All laws will be applied equally and executed as written.  Those failing to fulfill their oaths of office will be removed.  No more rioting and destruction without consequences.  No more looting and theft. 
  • All administrative “law” is hereby relegated to recommendations only.  No action may be taken against any US citizen without a clearly written law. 

Eliminate Covid lockdowns that are effectively house arrest where there has been no broken law, illegal activity or theft.  Locking up healthy people is tyranny.

We will defend the shining city on the hill. We will protect and defend the Constitution as it is written, not with a 1000 page interpretation.  

In support of this we the people add the following items to the BILL OF RIGHTS

Modified 2nd Amendment – The right of a law abiding citizen to bear arms and all other forms of self-defense shall not be infringed.

Modified 10th Amendment – The powers not explicitly delegated to the United States Federal Government by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

New Amendment – The federal government shall not spend money on any topic within the jurisdiction of the states, including the broad interpretation of “general welfare”

New Amendment – Congress is granted a narrow and exclusive power to regulate shipments across state lines–not all the economic activity of the nation.  Further, only commerce that involves 2/3rds of states may be regulated. 

New Amendment – All federally elected officials are limited to a total of two terms in any individual office.

New Amendment – Neither administrative, policy, admin “law”, regulations or Executive Orders may be treated as law.  Congress is the sole exclusive agency to enact laws. 

All administrative “law” is hereby relegated to recommendations only.  No action may be taken against any US citizen, entity or business without a clearly written law.  All federal law may ONLY be adjudicated by the federal courts. 

New Amendment – All laws apply equal to all citizens within the US. Congress shall make no law applicable to a citizen of the United States that is not equally applicable to Congress.  Laws may be more restrictive, penalties more extreme for elected officials.

New Amendment – No laws may provide additional benefit, or create adversity for an individual based on: office, gender or race.

New Tax Amendment – The federal government must balance its budget for each fiscal starting in 2022.  Deficit spending must be approved by a 2/3 majority of all state houses of representation.

While there is no budget congress shall not be paid.

Rescind the 17th amendment – states APPOINT the senate.  They are NOT publicly elected.

New Tax Amendment – Taxation is ONLY permitted for activities clearly enumerated in the constitution.  All other taxes shall be terminated.  The IRS Courts are rescinded. Federal taxes are limited to a flat sales tax of 12%

New Amendment – ONLY the judicial branch may adjudicate law, administrative law or regulation.  The only federal courts in the USA are the judicial branch. 

New Amendment – Convicted criminals shall have no extra rights above and beyond those of their victims and the citizenry as a whole

New amendment – all branches of the govt must report metrics and measures indicating expected vs actual outcomes.   Measures of cases, public served, cost compared to private agencies etc.

New amendment – No govt agency can provide services that directly overlap or duplicate services provided by another agency within the government.  A single agency can for short periods provide duplicate services to compare processes and improve operations for 6 to 18 months.  At the end of the test period the agency must eliminate the least performing process.  Where possible agencies will compare outcomes to private entities. 

New Amendment – Only the most qualified may be hired, creating discrimination based on race or gender or political is counter to the very founding of this Country. In all ways the government must be a meritocracy.

New Amendment – Social media shall be treated as MEDIA. Social Media entities, virtual assistants and AI tools, retain no legal protections if they deny the freedom of speech. Further, major provides who deny freedom of speech deny the very foundation of the United States. Social media is either liable for everything published as if they published it, or they must allow complete and unfettered free speech. To retain protections under the first amendement they must not edit, censor or modify content. If they do they are fully liable and subject to legal action.

New Amendment – US Law and State law overrides any treaty or international law.  Foreign entities, groups or governments may not govern the domestic law of the United States.

New Amendment – The Supreme Court shall consist of 9 Justices members. The supreme court may ONLY use the laws of the land to determine compliance, and shall forthwith decline the use of case law. Justices shall have terms of 9 years and may be reappointed up to 3 times in total. Any case brought by 10 or more states must be heard by the Supreme Court.

New Amendment – The federal government cannot indemnify a private entity, group or organization for liability or create immunity for actions.

New Amendment – Congress may not use public or federal funds to provide law suit coverage for personal actions of members of the government, judicial, legislative or executive – except as noted elsewhere in the constitution and these amendments.

New Voting Amendment – Voting for all offices shall be on paper and shall in person OR in special circumstances, shall have biometric confirmation to ensure a single vote.  Special circumstances shall be limited to:

  • military or govt service requiring travel that would preclude in person voting
  • medical conditions or status that would deny the option of voting in person, as considered reasonable by a jury of peers.

All votes will be paper votes and some mechanism such as ink will be used to ensure that each individual will vote only once.  All paper ballots will be kept for a minimum of 121 days.  ANY changes to voting must be made equally and may must be in place and publicly posted more that 121 days BEFORE any vote.

To vote in federal elections and individual must meet the following criteria:

  • Own ½ acre or more, a home or a small business employing others. AND/OR
  • Have prior military service, served in police/fire/paramedic, or nurse 

Any person who receives a bulk of their income, wages or salary from the federal govt or due to to their federal status or employment, during the prior election period, is denied the ability to vote until such time as they are no longer employed by the federal govt.

Tampering with votes is TREASON. Vote counting will be public and vote counting without equal representation of oversight at all times shall be considered TREASON.

New Amendment.  The constitution, amendments and laws shall be considered ONLY as they are written. Interpretation or intent cannot be the basis for rulings. Greives against law shall be resolved through changes to law or the constitution ONLY.

New Amendment. ONE SUBJECT Bills, no bill longer than the constitution.

We the citizens of the United States are providing clear expectations.  The collective behavior of the federal government is unacceptable. 

We have been quiet patriots, no more.  We represent each of the Free and Independent States of this Union.  In support of this Declaration, we the people, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, mutually reaffirm to each other, our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

A Call to Action

Get out there and interact. Many of us are focused on prepping – but are facing in, waiting, watching.  We need to get out – maybe consider it recon, or patriot news gathering, or citizen engagement.  Get out there and be positive.

Get educated about American history – read the constitution and federalist papers.  Read the Bible (even if you don’t believe in religion), EVERY founding father knew it inside and out. Read about Greek and Roman history.  Educate YOURSELF don’t let others decide for you.

Be prepared.  Get skills like:  first aid, HAM radio, welding, forging, beekeeping, gardening, animal husbandry, gun smithing, self defense, hunting, fishing, sewing, beer/wine making, engineering, get pluming, electrical, nursing, skills to support yourself, your family and this great country. Practice bartering, we did it for 100+ years.

Stock up.  Get food you eat anyway and have a YEAR of food and water on hand. Preferably canned, dried, or even freeze dried foods.  That food can help you if you lose a job, or if your family or friends lose a job – or if you choose your neighbors.  If you choose to arm yourself, be responsible.  Pick a small conceal carry handgun and a long gun or two, and buy in twos.  Buy weapons you can control and use. But ONLY arm yourself if you plan to learn proper handling, and practice.  Consider a conceal carry license.

Get heavy duty decent clothes, shoes and boots. Use Parler, Facebook, Signal, Twitter, Proton Mail to talk with others.

Plan to live without power, but work to improve our power grid.  Plan to live without healthcare but work to expand hospitals and medical services.

James Franklin Great, Great, Great Grandson of Silence Dogood 

Categories
Community Prepare

To Mask or Not to Mask

Mask up if you want to. If you are sick with Covid or Influenza (or aren’t sure if you are sick) stay home. If you must travel when sick if you suspect you are sick, definitely mask up. There is evidence that it reduces transfer for a sick person.

With the demonstrated risk of face masks; mask wearing should be a choice, not a legal mandate that includes fines and jail time.

But legally mandating masks is simply wrong. There is no widespread scientific support for forced mask use. If you are support or are a government official thinking about mandating masks because of increasing infections you are looking at the wrong measure. Instead focus on deaths and hospitalization rates, those are the only two that count. If your hospital ICU load is over 50% regionally, or your death rates spike focus on that. Focus on protecting nursing homes, over 40% of deaths have been from people in nursing homes.

Image may contain: text that says 'Regarding effectiveness of masks evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirme influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning." Surh:///2785/'
CDC: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
NIH: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32027586/

In a pandemic all masks do is slow the spread, which was meant to flatten the curve. That means keeping hospitalizations below 100% ICU load. The highest load in the USA as of 7/11 is 22% (in new york) Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 So you don’t need to worry about flattening the curve. So maybe you are trying to stop deaths?

What about the petri-dish video? It is true it reduces particulates directly in front of the individual. That video doesn’t show real world data as noted below. It doesn’t show numerous other videos show the plume and particles around the individual and trailing the walking individual. If masks worked so well how did it get out of China?

Video from Good Morning America explaining why facemasks should be limited to those who are sick. https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/video/realities-facemasks-fight-coronavirus-exposure-69252522

The following are 34 references with links to studies indicating little, or no positive results from wearing a mask to stop the transfer of viruses.

(1) Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection. Further research is needed to inform the widespread use of cloth masks globally. However, as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs, particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971

(2) Neither surgical nor cotton masks effectively filtered SARS–CoV-2 during coughs by infected patients.

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342

(3) “…evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning. We identified several major knowledge gaps requiring further research, most fundamentally an improved characterization of the modes of person-to-person transmission.”

Source: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

(4) We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection…. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.

Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

(5) — There is limited evidence that wearing a medical mask by healthy individuals in households, in particular those who share a house with a sick person, or among attendees of mass gatherings may be beneficial as a measure preventing transmission.(41, 56-61)

https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve

(6) Results from cluster randomized controlled trials on the use
of masks among young adults living in university residences
in the United States of America indicate that face masks may
reduce the rate of influenza-like illness, but showed no impact
on risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza.(62, 63) …. At
present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID19 and in healthy people in the community) on the
effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the
community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses,
including COVID-19.https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve

https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve

(7) Our study revealed a decrease in the oxygen saturation of arterial pulsations (SpO2) and a slight increase in pulse rates compared to preoperative values in all surgeon groups. The decrease was more prominent in the surgeons aged over 35.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18500410/

(8) Wearing an N95 mask for 4 hours during HD significantly reduced PaO2 and increased respiratory adverse effects in ESRD patients.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15340662/

(9) Wearing N95 masks results in hypooxygenemia and hypercapnia which reduce working efficiency and the ability to make correct decision. Medical staff are at increased risk of getting ‘Severe acute respiratory syndrome'(SARS), and wearing N95 masks is highly recommended by experts worldwide. However, dizziness, headache, and short of breath are commonly experienced by the medical staff wearing N95 masks. The ability to make correct decision may be hampered, too. The purpose of the study was therefore to evaluate the physiological impact of N95 mask on medical staff.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00173017

(10) “Chronic hypoxia-hypercapnia influences cognitive function” (proper mask wearing is linked to hypoxia)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18331781

(11) N95-masked health-care workers (HCW) were significantly more likely to experience headaches. Face mask use was not demonstrated to provide benefit in terms of cold symptoms or getting colds.

Jacobs, J. L. et al. (2009) “Use of surgical face masks to reduce the incidence of the common cold among health care workers in Japan: A randomized controlled trial,” American Journal of Infection Control, Volume 37, Issue 5, 417 – 419. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19216002

(12) A post hoc comparison between the mask versus no-mask groups showed a protective effect against clinical respiratory illness, but not against ILI and laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory infections. (so masks reduced clinical respiratory illness but didn’t stop influenza like illness (covid19 falls in the ILI category).

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28039289/

(13) The rates of CRI, ILI and laboratory-confirmed virus infections were lowest in the medical mask arm, followed by the control arm, and highest in the cloth mask arm. (In a nushell cloth masks were WORSE)

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577

(14) The primary finding was that regular hand hygiene was significantly protective in protecting from pandemic influenza infection, while facemask use was not significantly protective.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300858

(15) Contaminated masks and masks holding moisture and pathogen retention can increase the risk of infection.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/#__ffn_sectitle

(16) None of the studies reviewed showed a benefit from wearing a mask, in either HCW or community members in households (H). See summary Tables 1 and 2 therein.

Cowling, B. et al. (2010) “Face masks to prevent transmission of influenza virus: A systematic review,” Epidemiology and Infection, 138(4), 449-456. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/face-masks-to-prevent-transmission-of-influenza-virus-a-systematic- review/64D368496EBDE0AFCC6639CCC9D8BC05

(17) Reported that cloth masks are only marginally beneficial in protecting individuals from particles less than 2.5 micrometers. As referenced in the New England Journal of Medicine, the size of Coronavirus particles varied between 0.06 micrometers and 0.14 micrometers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/jes201642

(18) Wearing a mask for seven hours straight may not be safe. Carbon dioxide (CO2) rebreathing has been recognized as a concern in the Ergonomics Journal. The CDC has also admitted that the CO2 slowly builds up in the mask over time. This build-up can cause a condition called Hypercapnia. Essentially, CO2 poisoning – can cause mild symptoms of drowsiness or a headache. More severe symptoms can cause shortness of breath and even death.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23514282/

(19) On May 6th, 2020, the New York Post reported the death of two boys dying within a week of each other while wearing a face mask during gym class.

http://nypost.com/2020/05/06/two-boys-drop-dead-in-china-while-wearing-masks-during-gym-class/

(20) “There were 17 eligible studies. … None of the studies established a conclusive relationship between mask/respirator use and protection against influenza infection.” 

bin-Reza et al. (2012) “The use of masks and respirators to prevent transmission of influenza: a systematic review of the scientific evidence,” Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(4), 257–267. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00307.x

(21) “Breathing through N95 mask materials have been shown to impede gaseous exchange and impose an additional workload on the metabolic system of pregnant healthcare workers. The benefits of using an N95 mask to prevent serious emerging infectious diseases should be weighed against potential respiratory consequences associated with extended N95 respirator usage.

https://aricjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13756-015-0086-z

(22) “We identified six clinical studies … . In the meta-analysis of the clinical studies, we found no significant difference between N95 respirators and surgical masks in associated risk of (a) laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection, (b) influenza-like illness, or (c) reported work-place absenteeism.” 

Smith, J.D. et al. (2016) “Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks in protecting health care workers from acute respiratory infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis,” CMAJ Mar 2016 https://www.cmaj.ca/content/188/8/567

(23) “Self-reported assessment of clinical outcomes was prone to bias. Evidence of a protective effect of masks or respirators against verified respiratory infection (VRI) was not statistically significant”

Radonovich, L.J. et al. (2019) “N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel: A Randomized Clinical Trial,” JAMA. 2019; 322(9): 824–833. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

(24) “Among 2862 randomized participants, 2371 completed the study and accounted for 5180 HCW-seasons. … Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators vs medical masks as worn by participants in this trial resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza.”

Radonovich, L.J. et al. (2019) “N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel: A Randomized Clinical Trial,” JAMA. 2019; 322(9): 824–833. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

(25) “A total of six RCTs involving 9,171 participants were included. There were no statistically significant differences in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza, laboratory-confirmed respiratory viral infections, laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection, and influenza-like illness using N95 respirators and surgical masks. Meta-analysis indicated a protective effect of N95 respirators against laboratory-confirmed bacterial colonization (RR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.43-0.78). The use of N95 respirators compared with surgical masks is not associated with a lower risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza.”

Long, Y. et al. (2020) “Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks against influenza: A systematic review and meta-analysis,” J Evid Based Med. 2020;
1-9. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jebm.12381

(26) “Medical staff are at increased risk of getting ‘Severe acute respiratory syndrome’ (SARS), and wearing N95 masks is highly recommended by experts worldwide. However, dizziness, headache, and short of breath are commonly experienced by the medical staff wearing N95 masks. The ability to make correct decision may be hampered, too.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00173017

(27) Per OSHA masks dont work – “Surgical masks are not designed or certified to prevent the inhalation of small airborne contaminants.”

https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3219.pdf

(28) After 1,537 operations performed with face masks, 73 (4.7%) wound infections were recorded and, after 1,551 operations performed without face masks, 55 (3.5%) infections occurred. This difference was not statistically significant (p> 0.05) and the bacterial species cultured from the wound infections did not differ in any way… These results indicate that the use of face masks might be reconsidered.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01658736

(29) The wearing of a surgical face mask had no effect upon the overall operating room environmental contamination and probably work only to redirect the projectile effect of talking and breathing.

https://journals.lww.com/clinorthop/Citation/1975/09000/The_Operating_Room_Environment_as_Affected_by.20.aspx

Additional References

Categories
Community Prepare

Infection Rates DONT MATTER

Fear mongering by the media and gov officials is rampant. Stop paying attention to infections and start paying attention to hospitalization and death rates. Here are facts.

Nationwide “excess deaths” (total deaths) are down. Note they are below the norm (brown line).

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Hospitalizations are down. This graph lists covid19 visits based on age. There are local hospitals overloaded or nearly so, but that doesn’t match the overall trend nationwide. Note there is a slight uptick but nothing above the dashed line. Also note we never went over 16% (remember we were told we would hit 100% and overwhelm the entire healthcare system.) The only place that got overwhelmed was New York that I know of – and they weren’t really overwhelmed – they barely used their hospital ship and didn’t really open any of the temporary military hospitals/hotels.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Another interesting infographic shows real time hospital utilization. In this case I selected New York (the largest caseload). They are 22.48% no where near 100% utilization. Proof that there are no true “hot spots” nationally (again there may be locally).

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Looking exclusively at Covid19 Death vs Infection rates the graphs are opposite. Note the increasing trend started June 14, so we are more than 14 days in without a corresponding increase in hospitalization or deaths.

Source: Google Wiki (https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+19+deaths&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS890US890&oq=covid+19+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l4j69i60l3.5487j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

The graph below is the “scary upward trend” – but note it doesn’t correlate to hospitalizations OR deaths. We have MORE than flattened the curve, now we are flattening livelihoods and freedom instead.

Source: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS890US890&sxsrf=ALeKk01HNsbaJpw-jCiRN6nM00-nyPhkcg%3A1594399946136&ei=ypwIX-PdB5T0tAbU0ZvYCA&q=covid+19+cases&oq=covid+19+cases&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIFCAAQsQMyCAgAELEDEIMBMggIABCxAxCDATICCAAyBQgAELEDMgIIADICCAAyAggAMgUIABCxAzIICAAQsQMQgwE6BAgAEEdQhr4BWJLEAWCxxQFoAHADeACAAWGIAdADkgEBNZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjj6qzTksPqAhUUOs0KHdToBosQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

By all measures that matter, the situation is improving. Before you say the hospitalizations will spike, the 14 day infection / hospitalization cycle is not reflecting spikes (we are over 3 weeks since June 14 when the upward trend started).

There are LOCAL situations where the hospitals are full or nearly full – that is why we have a hospital SYSTEM in the US that allows patients to be transferred.

We are collectively in single digit to low double digit hospitalization rates in 95%+ areas of the USA. There is no need for the fear mongering, the high infection – low death rate ratio should be GOOD NEWS.SOURCE DATA:CDC hospitalization rate decreases (curve) graph with red

*FOCUS ON THE FACTS* not the hyperbole

Categories
Community

9 Reasons why we need to open NOW!

In a nutshell we should open up NOW and stay open, unless something changes dramatically. The Covid19 risk is within the same risk level as historical influenza outbreaks that did NOT result in economic shutdown. The number of studies that debunk the 3.5% and 7% death rates are overwhelming.
Last updated: 5/22/2020

Blue “sick person sampling” vs “Random Sampling” vs 100% sampling

One other key thing. Infection testing is less important that anti-body testing. If you have the anti-bodies you cant be seriously infected with the same virus strain again.

Reason 1: The Death Rate is a LOT lower than reported.

The number reported is correct except no one understands that it is knowingly wrong because of sample error. The blue columns are what are regularly reported on TV. The real numbers are 5 to 20x lower

The ACTUAL random samples (below) are in grey and orange. The random or 100% sampling death rates are between 0.39% and 1.47% not the 3.5% or 7% being reported. The German study was the lowest of all and had 100% sampling.

The difference between the John’s Hopkins numbers and these studies is purely sampling bias or “error”. The blue represents a sampling of tested sick people. The orange and grey represent a sampling of an entire group of people (those sick and those who don’t appear to be sick).

Recently the “death rate” fell from 7% to 6.01% – that is highly unlikely, and indicates wider testing not decreased lethality.

What is Sampling Bias?

Nearly all the currently reported data is misleading. A simple example of sampling bias: Only sample the fish in a grocery store. You measure size and type. The sample shows all the fish are fairly large, uniform and of limited number of species. If I go out and randomly catch fish in rivers, lakes and oceans, the size and types of fish vary widely. (sample bias vs random sampling)

What is Omission Bias?

Omission bias is reporting a fact but skipping related facts. Example: News headlines say “infection rates spiking!” but they fail to report real data like hospitalization utilization compared to normal hospitalization rates and death rates compared to NORMAL death rates. Infections alone don’t really mean anything.

Another omission is that the widely reported information is ONLY for those sampled (it is not random sampling). We rarely here about random sampling statistics.

Read more about sampling bias

Reason 2: Most Hospitals are Not Overloaded

We were told we were trying to flatten the curve. Remember this graph?

In this example above, we all get Covid19 but we get it slow enough that we didn’t overwhelm healthcare. We didn’t overwhelm the system. We flattened it completely. In fact we have created a situation where it is TOO flat. As an example in Wisconsin the ICU load was less than 10% NORMAL utilization and 7.6% of max utilization.

With this very low utilization, the hospitals will go bankrupt quickly, so unless the goal was to bankrupt hospitals – we need to change our behavior. Source: https://www.wha.org/COVID19Update

The blue line (bottom) is even misleading. The “max” for that line is 1442 without the military hospitals. See link above for current data.

Another way to look at the numbers


Image: Wisconsin ICU Bed Utilization
** does not include temporary military hospitals which are EMPTY.

Wisconsin regularly reported increases in hospitalization. But the fact is that hospitals in Wisconsin were regularly below 20% utilization from April through May 2020. Nationwide over 256 hospitals had to lay off staff. There was not a huge spike nationwide, there were spikes in specific locations (just like a bad flu season). https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/49-hospitals-furloughing-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html.

Reason 3: Only 15% or less of us are at risk

We were told, we are ALL at risk! We are in this together. A half truth. Yes, everyone is at risk. We are at risk of dying from pretty much everything and there is a 100% chance we will all die. The facts are that the risk is high for elderly and people with pre-existing conditions, and very low for everyone else (see graphs)

Remember, even these numbers are biased because they are not random sampling of the population. This is ONLY those who were infected or suspected of being infected.

Image: Age distribution – from information is beautiful

We should be focusing our limited resources on the 15% of the population that is at risk, not the 85% of us that are at low or very low risk.

Reason 4: Yes people are dying, but not a lot more than normal

Cold hard math, unpleasant, uncomfortable thoughts. The numbers of people dying are not significantly higher than normal. It feels like this cant be true. The news says its unprecedented but the numbers don’t lie.

Here is a graph from CDC of normal (orange line) and actual deaths blue. Note only two spikes in 2018 and one in 2020 – and note not hugely different. For historical comparison we had influeza spikes that were equal or higher per 100k and we didn’t put 22 mil into unemployment and bankrupt 4% to 12% of small businesses.

Image: CDC Normal Death Rates see spikes in 2018 and 2020

If the .39% death rate is true that is 2.7 times as dangerous as normal flu (like the 1998 flu season).

Image: CDC Normal Death Rates
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Reason 5: Big Events haven’t resulted in increased death

Big events such as: elections, rallies and reopening entire states have had no impact on death rates. Georgia re-opened April 24th.

May 13th Report – the curve to the right shows decreases. Even though they opened up. Source: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

On May 22nd the predicted 1000s of Georgia deaths didn’t materialize. The graph below confirms the graph above. At minimum, there is no increase in deaths, even with the state being “open”. 28 days later there is a downward trend in deaths (or at least no significant increase).

May 22nd report

On April 7th Wisconsin had an in person election with 300,000+ people participating. Wisconsin had a rally with 3000+ people (mostly without masks) on April 24th, and 28 days later there is no big spike in deaths. The predicted 1000s of deaths in Wisconsin didn’t materialize.

Wisconsin Covid Death Graph Source

The following are other examples of decreasing or stable trends after reopening. See CNN link for updated data

Alaska opened April 24 – no spike: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-coronavirus-trnd/
Opened May 4th: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-coronavirus-trnd/

Reason 6: Staying inside will not stop the virus.

The idea that staying inside will “stop the virus” is purely wishful thinking. WHO, CDC and all other agencies all expected us to get the virus. The only goal was to reduce the number of people infected at one time. If we stay inside more all we do is SLOW the spread, we dont STOP the spread.

You may have seen a graph on social media called “flattening the curve.” That graph shows a tall, narrow curve and a short, wide curve. Through the graph is a line that shows how many sick people U.S. hospitals can treat. The tall curve goes above the line. That means too many people are sick at one time: We won’t have enough hospital beds for all the people who will need treatment. The flatter curve shows what happens if the spread of the virus slows down. The same number of people may get sick, but the infections happen over a longer span of time, so hospitals can treat everyone.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/qa/what-is-flattening-the-curve

The CDC, WHO and other medical agencies never said staying home would “stop the virus”. Staying home only delays things – it will not stop Covid19.

Also, we need real herd immunity so we can protect those at most risk. Thinking that hiding and still going out only to Walmart or Costco will somehow “protect us” is not realistic.

Reason 7: Staying locked down hurts and kills people

We have 22million+ people already unemployed. In a good year we have 45,000 suicides – the economic crash is NOT going to help that number, and increases in suicides are reported widely. Decreases in GDP will result in decreased govt revenue which will result in decreased govt support for those in need of help. LOST REVENUE WILL RISK LIVES.

Related articles

The UN is noting that worldwide famine is likely because of Covid. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

We are hiding at home from a virus that we will get sooner or later. We are trading higher suicides, higher poverty, loss of freedom, reduced revenue for critical services, and directly leading to famine overseas to simply put off the inevitable?

At some point we NEED to get infected. If we stick our head in the sand, this fall 2020 and winter 2021 version of Covid19 will be even worse (read about the Spanish flu if you haven’t). We need to build up immunity

Reason 8: The Vaccine won’t solve it

Even if we get a vaccine (which I hope is safe and effective). It is likely to be at most 20% effective. So we are going to see people get infected and some will die. That is a fact, that unfortunately cannot be avoided. Once we reopen (even with a vaccine) we will see increased infections and death. Likely to exceed a 100 million infections nationwide and 300,000 deaths when it is all done.

Delaying the infection is all we can do, and the WAY we are delaying now destroys our econmony which destroys our ability to help those most in need.

Reason 9: Return Choice to the People

This is our constitutional right, and the government is overstepping by taking it away. I talked with my parents who are 77 and 81. They would trade their lives to protect their children and grandchildren in a minute. I don’t want to make that trade, but I cannot lock them away either. And WE don’t have the right to take away other peoples children’s futures.

This is a serious, real dilemma. But we have been and I hope we continue to be focused on freedom, shared risk and personal responsibility. Recommending behavior and allowing the PEOPLE to decide is the only way we are going to succeed in the long run.

Why Masks Should Not Be Mandatory

It is ok to recommend masks, but mandating the use of masks is not supported by studies. Quite the contrary, there are numerous studies and reports that indicated low value and some limited risks with ongoing use of face mask.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32027586/

Further, non-medical, home made or “cloth” masks are even less effective. Also, reuse of masks introduces other bacterial and viral risks, which have limited studies, some of which indicate secondary bacterial and secondary transmission risks.

References

First Published May 15th 2020.

Categories
Defense

Personal Defense Weapons Basics

FIRST, research personal defense, get books and search the web you have many inexpensive resources that could help save your life. To get you thinking, here are a few key concepts. It is likely this review will leave you with more questions than answers, but that is the intent. Personal defense is not an easy subject, and if there were one best way everyone would be doing it.

3 Principles of Defense

Learn. Your brain is your weapon. Educate yourself. Remember, any object you buy can be broken, lost, stolen or destroyed.  Education can be passed down and cannot stolen.  

Prepare physically. Learn Judo, Taekwondo or other personal defense arts. Get yourself in shape, and prepare supplies for every day and even uncommon emergencies.

Practice. A skill learned or weapon bought and never used is a complete waste. With weapons it is worse because the bad guy could use the weapon against you.

Quality Matters 

Buy quality items.  That doesn’t mean you don’t buy inexpensive backups, but it does mean purchasing good knives, rifles, shotguns and pistols you can pass down to your grandchildren.  In the whole scheme of things, you might be planning for a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situation, but odds are it won’t happen.

A SHTF situation will more likely impact your kids or their grand-kids, so you could be making a purchase that will save your family 50 to 100 years from now.  Buy with the long picture in mind, buy stuff that can be repaired.  If you don’t have this perspective, go ahead and buy inexpensive alternatives.

Defense Considerations

If you are uncomfortable with the idea of a weapon such as a gun or knife, consider getting training in any number of self defense programs from Jujitsu, Judo, Boxing or Karate to more intense programs such as Krav Maga (Israel personal combat training). 

Alternative Defense: You could select other techniques such as loud personal alarms, pepper spray, tasers or a guard dog.  Research your options.

Responsibility.  Any weapon increases YOUR level of responsibility.  Even a knife increases responsibility, risk and need for control.  If you have a knife, pistol or rifle it could be used against you, or against those you intend to protect.   If you are armed, in a defense situation with multiple people, you will likely be the leader by default.  Simply being prepared may put you in a leadership position.  Being armed will make you a target.  The decision to arm yourself has ramifications, and even the simple act of purchasing a weapon is a big decision.

Laws.  Although this is probably the last thing you would think about when being attacked, especially in a SHTF situation, you should research the laws.  In some areas your only legal option is to run, in other areas you can stand your ground through laws that support “castle doctrine” and self preservation.  You need to research what applies to you.  Research the facts before you support any pro or anti-gun group.  Some facts are not pretty and may feel counter intuitive, but knowing the facts is like having a weapon that no one can take from you.

Situational Awareness: Choose a weapon for the situation.  If a gun is illegal or requires unmanageable controls or you cant deal with it or the gun cannot be carried in a particular situation… skip it and carry the knife or pepper spray.  If you are likely to be in wet/snow, dry/hot areas consider the weapon and its requirements.  If you have to carry a weapon long distance consider weight, reliability, maintenance, ammo weight and cleaning requirements.

Proportional Response 

The idea of proportional response is to match your aggression and weapons to that of the opponent.  Forget it, avoid it, never follow it. This is NOT a safe solution for an individual or group.  Dropping to a knife if the other guy has a knife (when you have a gun) creates the maximum risk for everyone involved.  This creates a situation where there is no clearly superior force.  

To say I strongly disagree with the idea of proportional response is a complete understatement.  Follow the logic.  If a person fights you with their fists, you don’t pull your knife or gun, but instead you just give them a fair fight.  This gives the person the idea they might win, when in reality you have two more levels of defense.  Another theory is that you only pull the knife, again bad idea.  Using maximum threat and force is safer for you and the aggressor.  Stop threat escalation if at all possible.  Reducing the combat situation protects everyone.  If you go to the highest point the aggressor is likely to retreat and you end up controlling the situation.  Overkill is good.  But overkill requires you to be trained and capable of using & controlling the weapon AND you must be able to manage the situation.

Armed (non-gun) defense

Other non-firearm options include: a knife, club, pepper spray, mace, paintball gun (with stink/skunk rounds), brass knuckles and numerous other options.  There are crossover items such as the stun gun which is incapacitating but also more risky than pepper spray.  Pepper spray is an inflammatory, mace is a irritant.  Pepper spray is the more effective of the two.  There are laws in many states regarding purchase/use of mace & pepper spray, it is not legal in many states.  RESEARCH BEFORE BUYING.  

For pepper spray consider the Sabre Red or Bear pepper spray, it is the right size, has good range and is effective and has good reviews, even by people who have had it used on them.

Accessibility

Weapons (having them accessible and ready to use is the key).  Owning a pistol, rifle, knife, shotgun or pepper spray and having it locked away in a safe, does you no good in an emergency situation. 

Comfort & Confidence

Choose a weapon you are comfortable with and a weapon you are truly willing to use.  Pulling a gun, knife or even pepper spray and being afraid to use the weapon in a confrontation is worse than not having it at all.  It makes you a target, and can result in that weapon be used AGAINST you.

Practice

You practice dancing, driving, sports, games, swimming or scuba diving.  If you have chosen to use a weapon and/or physical self defense; you need to practice. It is not an option.

Maintenance. 

Even a simple knife requires sharpening and cleaning.  A firearm such as a revolver, semi-auto pistol, rifle or shotgun will complicate maintenance – and may pose legal/operational challenges.  Remember you must maintain whatever you purchase. It even applies to martial arts, refresh, retrain, practice.

By in pairs or multiples

When considering weapons consider buying them in pairs.  Why get two of everything?  Because if the SHTF situation occurs you won’t easily be able to get parts.  Having two (or more) allows you arm yourself and someone else, and a team can defend better than an individual.  Two people practicing can encourage each other train, when alone either might skip the training/practice.   

Even without a SHTF type situation, things break, parts fail and things get lost.  If you find something you like, get two (or more).  Manufacturers stop building a model and having a few means you have parts.  Even if you have a problem with a particular weapon you would likely have the same problem with the various “duplicates”.  This makes maintenance, spare parts, and handling easier to deal with. 

Also if one is damaged, lost or must be abandoned, you have a backup that you are familiar with.  If you have close family or friends consider everyone purchasing the same items (if they are proficient with the weapon).  Groups can share maintenance parts, tools, ammunition and most of all expertise.  This is true of all devices, tools and weapons AND even martial arts.

Knives

Many people carry a pocket knife.  If you don’t have a pocket knife, get one.  If you have a pocket knife, consider upgrading it.  Find a knife you are comfortable carrying and using.  Practice with it, use it, and have at least one spare.  The knife can serve multiple purposes. 

For a first time buyer consider one that is lightweight, a small folding Spyderco or Buck are good starting points.  If you are willing to invest a bit more, consider a Benchmade, Kershaw or Ontario. Consider keeping one the same as your EDC permanently in your car kit, or at least an Buck emergency knife with a seat belt cutter and glass punch.

Guns, Rifles and Shotguns. 

Before you buy any firearm, get training.  Take classes, learn from someone who has experience.  Try out various weapons you would consider purchasing, fire the weapons as much as possible.  Define the purpose and use of the weapon, before you buy it, hunting defense or both.  Are guns legal where you are?  Are there rules in your city that might limit your choices?  Consider where you will store it, protect it and keep it out of the hands of children and others you would not want to handle it.  Where will you practice with it?  Consider if you can afford ammo and how you will acquire ammo, and consider the legal and personal moral feelings of taking action whether hunting or self defense.  Will you carry the weapon all the time? Remember if you don’t have it on you, you cannot it use for defense – whether that is around the house or full time conceal carry.

Consider ammunition

Sticking with specific type of ammo across your weapons allows you to stockpile.  Also if you are truly preparing for a highly unlikely SHTF situation or Zombie apocalypse, you might already be thinking about reloading your own ammo.  If you reload you probably want to select weapons based on the ammo you can reload.  Remember though, that the various ammo types were created for a reason. 

Limiting your ammo to two or three types of rounds makes stockpiling easier, and gives you more flexibility in ammo use.  The 45ACP has great stopping power but weighs 4.69lbs vs 100 rounds; for 9mm it weighs 2.63lbs.  In simpler terms the 9mm is a lighter round from a stopping power perspective than a 45ACP but its also weighs nearly 44% less, so you could physically carry more rounds.

Limiting your ammo, also limits the tools at your disposal.   You might need 380acp for conceal, 9mm for bulk carry and want 45 for open carry, plus shotgun, 223/5.56, 7.62×39, 308/7.62 or 30-06.  Match the tool (weapon) to YOUR need.

A couple years ago I came across a study by Greg Ellifritz on the web, it was eye opening.  In Ellifritz’s words “there really isn’t that much difference between most defensive handgun rounds and calibers. None is a death ray, but most work adequately…even the lowly .22s.

I’ve stopped worrying about trying to find the “ultimate” bullet. There isn’t one. And I’ve stopped feeling the need to strap on my .45 every time I leave the house out of fear that my 9mm doesn’t have enough “stopping power.” Folks, carry what you want. Caliber really isn’t all that important.”

Greg Ellifritz

Based on this, I recommend you get the highest caliber that you can shoot well and meets your needs.  That might mean you have 380acp for conceal carry pistols, 9mm or .40cal or 45acp for holster carry, and shotgun for bird hunting, and 223/556 for home defense and medium game.  You might have 308/30-06 for deer and large game at distance.  Know what you need to do and match the tools to the need.  An original copy of his posting http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2745992/posts

From my perspective, Greg Ellifritz study, means you will likely need 2 to 3 rounds in a stressful situation to stop the target (regardless of the ammo type).  The smaller and lighter 9mm round allows you to carry more rounds, in a smaller lighter space. So you can get more rounds off, and might be more accurate with the lighter round.

Personally the 45ACP was more appealing to me, as we were looking to it for stopping power, but the % fatal shots challenges my belief.   It is 29% fatal while the 22short/and LR is 34%.   This resulted in my change of opinion on weapons and caliber.

I switched to focusing almost exclusively on the most accurate largest round we could manage.  Instead I moved to 380acp/9mm for conceal and manageable recoil, and the AR/AK for adults that can manage the recoil.  

Rifles vs. Pistols

The rifle and shotgun are obviously heavier than pistols and more accurate over a greater distance.  Again you need to consider what your purpose for the weapon is.  In self defense situations rifles are 30% to 40% more effective in self defense (per Elifritz study). 

A pistol is less likely to stop an aggressor, or kill prey when hunting than a rifle.  The longer barrel results in higher velocity and better aim.  Better aim means better knockdown. 

Looking at head shots in Elifritz’s table; a rifle is roughly 10% to 40% better for accuracy on a head shot and measurably better for fatal shots (roughly double that of the pistol).  Overall the pistol is used for retreat or get to your long gun; alternately as a last resort. The pistol is not the 1st choice if a long barrel weapon is available.

Pistols – Semiautomatic vs. Revolver

The simplest most reliable weapon is the revolver.  In a risky situation, with one on one, it is most likely to fire and recover from a jam or misfire.  The semi-auto generally gives more rounds, is easier to conceal and allows for faster reload if you have extra magazines.  The semiautomatic pistol and rifle are widely available as is the revolver and single shot rifle. 

In SHTF the revolver tends to be the best as there aren’t many moving parts to fail.

Conclusion:

Purchase a gun that you can fire accurately. Purchase what meets YOUR needs (not mine or someone else’s).   Accuracy is more important than caliber, and practice makes perfect.  A good small gun in your pocket is much better than a great or perfect gun in your safe.  A low caliber that can hit the target is far more valuable than stray shots from a larger pistol.

Good luck and keep your powder dry.

WeAreTheBackupPlan and James Franklin provides this information as reference only.  James challenges you to do your own research, educate yourself and confirm anything you have questions on.  Educating yourself is KEY!

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Prepare

Why Should I Prepare?

The simple answer is because bad things WILL happen. The odds are stacked in favor the house. The problem is in our case, the “house” is the bad luck.

Planning and preparing never matches reality. But a plan and the resources, process and knowledge can be applied when things change.

“In preparing for battle, I have always found that
plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”

Dwight D Eisenhower

The example below shows the likelihood or “odds” of a given event. Note these are our personal estimates of odds. You can calculate using your own numbers.

Estimated Event Likelihood in a 20 year window

The main point is that in a 20 year window, some things that seem unlikely become far more likely. If you extend everything to a lifetime of 78 years the odds get even higher. (see below)

Likelihood of an event in 78 years (normal lifespan)

These are estimates only and intended to show that risk varies with the type of event, region and length. I am positive some of the numbers are wrong, but they are not wildly wrong.

Use these numbers as starting point. You should plan on the likely risks and you will likely protect yourself from at least a portion of the less likely but bigger impact risks.  The impact could be no power, no fuel and no transportation during a flood or snowstorm or earthquake, even if it is limited to your location.

No plan of operations extends with any certainty
beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.

Helmuth von Moltke 

Calculating the odds of a Hurricane

Some math will help you figure out the likelihood of a risk. The chance of a hurricane for someone in a hurricane prone area is 5% or higher each year.  That means you have a 95% chance annually of NOT being in a hurricane. For a 10 year period you multiple .95 by itself 10 times or .95 to the 10th power.  That means it’s only 40% chance of NOT having a hurricane over 10 years. In reverse that means you have a 60% chance that there WILL be a hurricane in 10 years. This varies a LOT where you live. That is one of the reasons insurance companies will generally charge a lot for hurricane insurance, the odds are not in their favor.

Calculating the odds of a Solar Flare (CME)

A major solar flare is also called a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). I is similar to an EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) from a nuclear bomb – but could last much longer.  Solar flares hit earth regularly and the odds are that a big one will eventually hit earth. 

The 1859 CME light show and electromagnetic storm lasted for two days.  It affected the entire planet. Telegraph wires started on fire, telegraph machines scorched paper printouts, stunned operators with shocks, transmitted gibberish, and continued working for hours even after being unplugged from the batteries that powered them. Even at this lower level it would be devastating to our modern electronic environment. A tiny solar flare event caused Toronto to be without power for an entire day in 1989. 

What are the odds?  It’s 2 times in 160 years, or a 1.25% chance each year.  Lets even skip the small one in 1989 and assume only 1 in 160 years.  Once in 160 years is a .63% chance. The math says the chance of a major solar flare is 6.08% in 10 years or about 1 in 16.  So it seems crazy because the odds of 0.63% per year are low, but the math does not support luck; luck runs out.  

For more info on electro magnetic pulses see: https://commonsensehome.com/electromagnetic-pulse-emp/

What are the Odds of War?

Calculating the likelihood of local, regional or global wars is hard. Given human history and current behavior of governments around the world, the odds, unfortunately, are increasing. As noted by BJ Campbell since 1453 we have seen 465 sovereign nations disappear.  That means there is an annual 82% chance annually that a country will cease to exist. Now that is less likely in the larger countries? No.  

The odds are bad. From his article “France had a 30-year war, a seven-year war, a particularly nasty revolution, a counter-revolution, that Napoleon thing, and a couple of world wars tacked on the end”.  The US has had two major events since its founding in 1678. Again from BJ Campbell, that is roughly two major civil wars in 340 years so 0.5882% per year risk. That means in your lifetime there is a 37% of another major internal US war.  

If you add in WWI, WWII, Korea and Vietnam means the risk jumps from .588% to 1.765% and over 78.7 years (average lifespan) the odds of war impacting us jumps from 37% to 75%.  Unfortunately the odds and not in our favor. The higher number is albeit a smaller impact.

What are the Odds of Terrorism?

Add in terrorism and local idiots with a gun and the odds of a small impact to your life jump to uncomfortable levels.  We also have variable risks from widespread man-made disasters impacting fuel prices, food supply, power grid, and of course pandemics.

The good news is it seems smaller conflicts around the globe have been letting off steam for the possible larger wars since WWII. Over the past decade antagonism has been building up between many groups around the world. A big example is radical Islam and anyone who opposes it. Increasing demand of growing populations for land and resources will also raise tensions.  From 355ad to 1291ad there were 309 muslim wars, invasions or major attacks. That is a 33% per year chance for an attack.

From 1970 to 2019 there were 282 muslim terrorist attacks as reported by WIKIPEDIA, which in my opinion is a low estimate.  But using that estimate that means there are 5.75 attacks EVERY YEAR worldwide. In the US alone it is 10 in that period so that is a 20% chance annually – and given under reporting it is closer to 30%. If you only take big ones there are a couple that killed over 100 so using the math, the odds are again in the 30% to 70% range in our lifetime, depending on how big the event is you are planning on.

But even with that high number it only measures the likelihood of the EVENT not of you being killed in the event. To calculate that we need to add in population – which dramatically lowers your odds.

What are the Odds of Financial Collapse?

Financial collapse has happened many times before, with smaller short term recessions and full blown depressions. We are seeing major financial problems periodically throughout the world. Combine financial instability with increased instability in the middle east and you increase the odds of at least a global recession if not a full global financial failure. Add a full war into the mix and the odds go way up. Many people believe it is almost inevitable that we will see massive inflation based on government spending and monetary policy from 2005 through 2017.

Even if its not the end of the world, we can expect some serious financial events because of government deficit spending, the same thing that would happen if we spent more than we had individually (just multiply it by billions of dollars).

What are the Odds that We Will Run Out of Natural Resources?

There are groups of people who believe we will run out of natural resources (iron, wood, water…) fill in your favorite item. This might even apply to food which is more logical as food production varies with weather which is quite hard to predict, much less control. 

Improvements in reducing waste should be made, as well as developing new, lower impact technologies to use resources more wisely, and to recycle existing waste.

The odds are you will get older; so building your home or modifying your home to better fit you as you age is a good investment. Think “Cradle to Cradle” design. For more information see our article: Aging in Place – Making Your Home Livable for a Lifetime

Food Supply Interruption

Two years of even minor interruptions in food production would impact global food prices. Make the interruptions medium or large and it would be equal to or worse than a global economic collapse. This is a serious area of concern. 

What are the Odds of a Major Power Outage Taking Out a Large Section of the Electrical Grid?

In a nutshell unless something changes, brownouts and power outages will spread throughout the US. Regardless of the big events, small interruptions in service are likely and actually likely to get worse given an aging power system. Worse yet power plants being retired far faster than we build new ones. 

Think of it this way, if the electricity isn’t working in your house and you don’t have light, water or heat, it really doesn’t matter why. 

What are the odds in the real world?

When you pile all the possible bad things together the odds keep getting higher and higher that “something” will happen in a 10 year period.  A civil/national war has a 37% chance in 10 years. A hurricane is 92% chance in 10 years. A solar flare is a 6% chance in 10 years. All these increase the likelihood of something bad happening.  This is why there are “force majeure clauses” in every insurance agreement and important agreement.  Shit happens and it is well known but not often discussed.

With all this doom and gloom we should all be dead or know someone who was killed in some awful way. The odds of an event are the NOT the same as the odds of the event impacting you. The odds for a lot of these events are CUT by population and location. Most terrorist events have a local impact only. Hurricanes only hit specific areas. But that is no consolation for those people caught in the events. Plan to be caught in the event, but God willing none of us will be involved. But God gave us a brain, hands and we resources so we need to prepare.

What are MY odds?

Look at your family history. How many times have you or your parents lost a job. What are the economic conditions where you live? How many times have you lived through a minor or major disaster? Use the math and you can estimate how much money, time and resources on preparing. This will give you a realistic estimate of your personal, family and/or community risks.

Predict what is likely. Plan on what to do. And it will Prepare you for those and other events you might not predict.

Personal example: My wife and I had been planning on saving money to buy a new 4wd vehicle and add an outbuilding. I had been gainfully employed sometimes with multiple jobs at once for 20+ years. Then I was laid off unexpectedly during a merger.

  1. Our prediction was to buy a new van and build and outbuilding. We also predicted likely power interruptions, and some minor food supply interruptions.
  2. Our plan was saving money and stocking on up beef (frozen in a chest freezer). Long term our plan was to be more self sufficient, and have enough to survive likely problems and likely natural disasters.
  3. We were prepared for success and some likely events. Then I was laid off. We didn’t plan on that, but the cash and meat in the freezer held us through until I found another job.

No man is worth his salt who is not ready at all times to risk his well-being, to risk his body, to risk his life, in a great cause.

– Theodore Roosevelt

Conclusion

This information may seem overwhelming.  Just focus on preparing the basics. We can’t spend ALL our resources on That will put you ahead of most people. Stockpile food and water, and have extra fuel. Balance all the crazy input with what you know to be reasonable, trust your gut and have a plan.

References

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Prepare

Coronavirus – Everything You Need to Know about Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2)

Updated 3/30/2020: This article covers the basics of Coronavirus Pandemic aka Covid19 aka SARS-CoV-2. We review its symptoms, how dangerous it is, what it will do to the economy, how to avoid it and myths about it.

World wide there are 766,336 cases resulting in 36,873 deaths. USA has 153,246 cases with 2467 deaths. New cases will continue to increase rapidly as more test kits become available.

When this is all said and done I estimate that death rates will be roughly 3x to 5x influenza, not 10x or more as the media has been reporting (that means .3% to as high as .8% not 10%). I base this on sampling data, and it is also supported by the cruise ship data.

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Community

WeAreTheBackupPlan

MISSION

Work to improve our community. Take responsibility for ourselves AND prepare to survive disasters and help others survive.

WHO WE ARE

We are the people who stand up even when we don’t want to, because we know someone must. We are the sheepdogs. We prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We stumble, we fall, we fail, but we get back up again. We share when we probably can’t afford to share. We volunteer quietly and take care of business, even when no one else knows. We are the oath keepers.

WE ARE THE BACKUP PLAN.

“All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope.”

― Winston Churchill

“Human happiness and moral duty are inseparably connected.”

― George Washington