Categories
Community Defense Prepare Tactics & Strategy

Now What?

The world is going to hell in a handbasket. What can a single person do? In a word, Persevere.

“Perseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages.” George Washington

Take Action

  1. Work to be self reliant
  2. Read the constitution of the USA 2x
  3. Plant a garden, then try perennials (apples/berries), then chickens, then the four footed critters.  Know where your food comes from and how to get it yourself if necessary.
  4. Team up and attend EVERY public govt meeting. Stick your nose into everything. School boards, election commissions, town, village, city, county, state or federal. Show up.  The soldiers who died on Normandy beaches showed up, the fireman and police who died in the line of duty showed up.  The least we can do is sit through some crappy meetings and speak up.
  5. Run for office. Get out there or at least help someone on your team get out there and represent us.  We won’t agree 100% of the time, we might even fight but we will support the rule of law, the US Constitution and freedom without question.
  6. Work to eliminate any rules, laws, policies or standards that do NOT comply with the US Constitution and State Constitution.  
  7. Vote with your $. Buy local. Buy products and services that build up the Country.
  8. Team up, build up your community, work together, work with your church and community centers. Look out for your neighbors, take personal responsibility.
  9. Get your family and friends (your team) to do take action, and review this list.

“If you are going through hell, keep going.” ― Winston S. Churchill

Ensure Communications

  1. Assume EVERYTHING you do electronically or near electronic devices is watched. But don’t stop speaking.  Speak like you are telling a million people something.  Speak honorably, openly and freely.  If you are getting shut down- find a way to speak.  Choose your words.
  2. Get Signal (smartphone app) and/or Viber on your Smartphone, and make sure your friends and family have it. It is also FULLY encrypted but Signal and Viber use data (internet) for texting and voice, so it will increase your data plan if you pay per GB for data. I do not recommend Telegram because not all communications are encrypted.
  3. Use freedom loving Social Media Gab & Parler (if it ever recovers). If you get locked out of Facebook or Twitter – consider leaving those services permanently.  Even if the app is blocked, you can go to the websites. I no longer recommend MeWe because they are banning specific political groups.
  4. Create 3 or more unique emails. 1st for junkmail/registrations.  2nd for friends and family and 3rd for banking/payments etc.  
    • Use Hotmail, Yahoo or such for your 1st junkmail (when vendors force you to register using an email).  
    • Consider secure services like: Protonmail, Tutanota, CounterMail or Posteo (europe) for 2nd and 3rd email addresses.  
  5. Turn on two-factor (two step) authentication for your phone, email, social media, banking etc.  Two-factor is absolutely necessary. Turn it on ANYWHERE you can.  If you don’t know how, ask your friends and family. Get everyone to use it.
  6. Use LastPass Family (cheap) or Keepass (free) to manage your passwords.  Set different passwords everywhere don’t reuse them. Longer passwords (pass phrases) like “I want 2 drink beer!” are harder to crack and easier for you to remember – customize them to something specific to you.
  7. Remember to cancel every account you are not using (credit cards, social media, services, email, etc)

“We Mutually Pledge To Each Other Our Lives, Our Fortunes, and Our Sacred Honor.”  Learn where the quote is from.

Stock Up

  1. Ensure you have a minimum of 6 months of Food, water, meds – rotate it for use.  Even if nothing bad happens you will have food if there is a power outage or you get laid off.
  2. Get Multiple first aid kits and learn how to use them (one in each vehicle)
  3. Get rechargeable AA and AAA batteries and a charger.  They will cost more money up front but save you $ in the long run. https://commonsensehome.com/best-battery-chargers/
  4. Household supplies
    • Purchase Heavy duty long lasting clothing, boots, shoes, jackets.
    • Warm blankets, wool blankets – in case you have to camp in your house
  5. Have a way to cook without electricity  
  6. Get $1mil in identity protection – or at least block new credit so you are less likely to be the victim of identity theft.
  7. Create a get home bag for each vehicle. https://commonsensehome.com/bug-out-bag/
  8. Get at least 2 of everything that is critical (one is none, two is one) and standardize wherever possible.

Here are ways more stock up related items:

Try to get at least 2 people in your group to do the following

  1. Get a HAM radio license – a cheap good handheld is the BaoFeng BF-F8HP.  If you can afford it and have the space purchase a base station with a large antenna and base station.
  2. Get first aid training. https://www.firstaidforfree.com/
  3. Learn to hunt
  4. Learn to fish
  5. Get your conceal carry license.  Focus on small lightweight pistols you can carry every day, and practice, or don’t get a pistol.  
  6. Start Beekeeping
  7. Learn trades: welding, forging, plumbing, electrical, etc.
  8. If you have these skills, TEACH SOMEONE.

Why?

Many of us are military veterans, or served in another way: police, fire, teachers, healthcare or just volunteered in the Cajun Navy.  We may or may not have sworn the oath.  If you haven’t said it, say it to your family – say it out loud to each other – and keep it.

I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.  I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same. I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion;

I will act in good faith working to improve the lives of everyone in all situations, respecting the sacrifices of those who died before me;
So help me God.

If you feel alone or outnumbered, remember

‘Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed, citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.’ — Margaret Mead 

In dark days, remember these words 

“Perseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages.” ― George Washington

God Bless – and even if you don’t believe in God, take action that will leave a positive legacy.

Signed,
James Franklin, Great, Great, Great Grandson of Silence Dogood 

Related Post: https://wearethebackupplan.com/declaration2021/

Last updated 1/8/2021

One last quote – it is worth re-reading…

“If you can keep your head, when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies, Or being hated, don’t give way to hating, And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise

If you can dream – and not make dreams your master; If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim; If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster And treat those two impostors just the same;

If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools, Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken, And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools

If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew To serve your turn long after they are gone, And so hold on when there is nothing in you Except the will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue, Or walk with Kings – nor lose the common touch, If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run, Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it, And – which is more – you’ll be a Man, my son!”
― Rudyard Kipling

Categories
Community Prepare

To Mask or Not to Mask

Mask up if you want to. If you are sick with Covid or Influenza (or aren’t sure if you are sick) stay home. If you must travel when sick if you suspect you are sick, definitely mask up. There is evidence that it reduces transfer for a sick person.

With the demonstrated risk of face masks; mask wearing should be a choice, not a legal mandate that includes fines and jail time.

But legally mandating masks is simply wrong. There is no widespread scientific support for forced mask use. If you are support or are a government official thinking about mandating masks because of increasing infections you are looking at the wrong measure. Instead focus on deaths and hospitalization rates, those are the only two that count. If your hospital ICU load is over 50% regionally, or your death rates spike focus on that. Focus on protecting nursing homes, over 40% of deaths have been from people in nursing homes.

Image may contain: text that says 'Regarding effectiveness of masks evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirme influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning." Surh:///2785/'
CDC: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
NIH: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32027586/

In a pandemic all masks do is slow the spread, which was meant to flatten the curve. That means keeping hospitalizations below 100% ICU load. The highest load in the USA as of 7/11 is 22% (in new york) Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 So you don’t need to worry about flattening the curve. So maybe you are trying to stop deaths?

What about the petri-dish video? It is true it reduces particulates directly in front of the individual. That video doesn’t show real world data as noted below. It doesn’t show numerous other videos show the plume and particles around the individual and trailing the walking individual. If masks worked so well how did it get out of China?

Video from Good Morning America explaining why facemasks should be limited to those who are sick. https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/video/realities-facemasks-fight-coronavirus-exposure-69252522

The following are 34 references with links to studies indicating little, or no positive results from wearing a mask to stop the transfer of viruses.

(1) Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection. Further research is needed to inform the widespread use of cloth masks globally. However, as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs, particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971

(2) Neither surgical nor cotton masks effectively filtered SARS–CoV-2 during coughs by infected patients.

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342

(3) “…evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning. We identified several major knowledge gaps requiring further research, most fundamentally an improved characterization of the modes of person-to-person transmission.”

Source: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

(4) We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection…. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.

Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

(5) — There is limited evidence that wearing a medical mask by healthy individuals in households, in particular those who share a house with a sick person, or among attendees of mass gatherings may be beneficial as a measure preventing transmission.(41, 56-61)

https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve

(6) Results from cluster randomized controlled trials on the use
of masks among young adults living in university residences
in the United States of America indicate that face masks may
reduce the rate of influenza-like illness, but showed no impact
on risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza.(62, 63) …. At
present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID19 and in healthy people in the community) on the
effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the
community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses,
including COVID-19.https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve

https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve

(7) Our study revealed a decrease in the oxygen saturation of arterial pulsations (SpO2) and a slight increase in pulse rates compared to preoperative values in all surgeon groups. The decrease was more prominent in the surgeons aged over 35.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18500410/

(8) Wearing an N95 mask for 4 hours during HD significantly reduced PaO2 and increased respiratory adverse effects in ESRD patients.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15340662/

(9) Wearing N95 masks results in hypooxygenemia and hypercapnia which reduce working efficiency and the ability to make correct decision. Medical staff are at increased risk of getting ‘Severe acute respiratory syndrome'(SARS), and wearing N95 masks is highly recommended by experts worldwide. However, dizziness, headache, and short of breath are commonly experienced by the medical staff wearing N95 masks. The ability to make correct decision may be hampered, too. The purpose of the study was therefore to evaluate the physiological impact of N95 mask on medical staff.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00173017

(10) “Chronic hypoxia-hypercapnia influences cognitive function” (proper mask wearing is linked to hypoxia)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18331781

(11) N95-masked health-care workers (HCW) were significantly more likely to experience headaches. Face mask use was not demonstrated to provide benefit in terms of cold symptoms or getting colds.

Jacobs, J. L. et al. (2009) “Use of surgical face masks to reduce the incidence of the common cold among health care workers in Japan: A randomized controlled trial,” American Journal of Infection Control, Volume 37, Issue 5, 417 – 419. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19216002

(12) A post hoc comparison between the mask versus no-mask groups showed a protective effect against clinical respiratory illness, but not against ILI and laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory infections. (so masks reduced clinical respiratory illness but didn’t stop influenza like illness (covid19 falls in the ILI category).

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28039289/

(13) The rates of CRI, ILI and laboratory-confirmed virus infections were lowest in the medical mask arm, followed by the control arm, and highest in the cloth mask arm. (In a nushell cloth masks were WORSE)

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577

(14) The primary finding was that regular hand hygiene was significantly protective in protecting from pandemic influenza infection, while facemask use was not significantly protective.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300858

(15) Contaminated masks and masks holding moisture and pathogen retention can increase the risk of infection.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/#__ffn_sectitle

(16) None of the studies reviewed showed a benefit from wearing a mask, in either HCW or community members in households (H). See summary Tables 1 and 2 therein.

Cowling, B. et al. (2010) “Face masks to prevent transmission of influenza virus: A systematic review,” Epidemiology and Infection, 138(4), 449-456. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/face-masks-to-prevent-transmission-of-influenza-virus-a-systematic- review/64D368496EBDE0AFCC6639CCC9D8BC05

(17) Reported that cloth masks are only marginally beneficial in protecting individuals from particles less than 2.5 micrometers. As referenced in the New England Journal of Medicine, the size of Coronavirus particles varied between 0.06 micrometers and 0.14 micrometers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/jes201642

(18) Wearing a mask for seven hours straight may not be safe. Carbon dioxide (CO2) rebreathing has been recognized as a concern in the Ergonomics Journal. The CDC has also admitted that the CO2 slowly builds up in the mask over time. This build-up can cause a condition called Hypercapnia. Essentially, CO2 poisoning – can cause mild symptoms of drowsiness or a headache. More severe symptoms can cause shortness of breath and even death.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23514282/

(19) On May 6th, 2020, the New York Post reported the death of two boys dying within a week of each other while wearing a face mask during gym class.

http://nypost.com/2020/05/06/two-boys-drop-dead-in-china-while-wearing-masks-during-gym-class/

(20) “There were 17 eligible studies. … None of the studies established a conclusive relationship between mask/respirator use and protection against influenza infection.” 

bin-Reza et al. (2012) “The use of masks and respirators to prevent transmission of influenza: a systematic review of the scientific evidence,” Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(4), 257–267. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00307.x

(21) “Breathing through N95 mask materials have been shown to impede gaseous exchange and impose an additional workload on the metabolic system of pregnant healthcare workers. The benefits of using an N95 mask to prevent serious emerging infectious diseases should be weighed against potential respiratory consequences associated with extended N95 respirator usage.

https://aricjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13756-015-0086-z

(22) “We identified six clinical studies … . In the meta-analysis of the clinical studies, we found no significant difference between N95 respirators and surgical masks in associated risk of (a) laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection, (b) influenza-like illness, or (c) reported work-place absenteeism.” 

Smith, J.D. et al. (2016) “Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks in protecting health care workers from acute respiratory infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis,” CMAJ Mar 2016 https://www.cmaj.ca/content/188/8/567

(23) “Self-reported assessment of clinical outcomes was prone to bias. Evidence of a protective effect of masks or respirators against verified respiratory infection (VRI) was not statistically significant”

Radonovich, L.J. et al. (2019) “N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel: A Randomized Clinical Trial,” JAMA. 2019; 322(9): 824–833. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

(24) “Among 2862 randomized participants, 2371 completed the study and accounted for 5180 HCW-seasons. … Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators vs medical masks as worn by participants in this trial resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza.”

Radonovich, L.J. et al. (2019) “N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel: A Randomized Clinical Trial,” JAMA. 2019; 322(9): 824–833. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

(25) “A total of six RCTs involving 9,171 participants were included. There were no statistically significant differences in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza, laboratory-confirmed respiratory viral infections, laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection, and influenza-like illness using N95 respirators and surgical masks. Meta-analysis indicated a protective effect of N95 respirators against laboratory-confirmed bacterial colonization (RR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.43-0.78). The use of N95 respirators compared with surgical masks is not associated with a lower risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza.”

Long, Y. et al. (2020) “Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks against influenza: A systematic review and meta-analysis,” J Evid Based Med. 2020;
1-9. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jebm.12381

(26) “Medical staff are at increased risk of getting ‘Severe acute respiratory syndrome’ (SARS), and wearing N95 masks is highly recommended by experts worldwide. However, dizziness, headache, and short of breath are commonly experienced by the medical staff wearing N95 masks. The ability to make correct decision may be hampered, too.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00173017

(27) Per OSHA masks dont work – “Surgical masks are not designed or certified to prevent the inhalation of small airborne contaminants.”

https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3219.pdf

(28) After 1,537 operations performed with face masks, 73 (4.7%) wound infections were recorded and, after 1,551 operations performed without face masks, 55 (3.5%) infections occurred. This difference was not statistically significant (p> 0.05) and the bacterial species cultured from the wound infections did not differ in any way… These results indicate that the use of face masks might be reconsidered.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01658736

(29) The wearing of a surgical face mask had no effect upon the overall operating room environmental contamination and probably work only to redirect the projectile effect of talking and breathing.

https://journals.lww.com/clinorthop/Citation/1975/09000/The_Operating_Room_Environment_as_Affected_by.20.aspx

Additional References

Categories
Community Prepare

Infection Rates DONT MATTER

Fear mongering by the media and gov officials is rampant. Stop paying attention to infections and start paying attention to hospitalization and death rates. Here are facts.

Nationwide “excess deaths” (total deaths) are down. Note they are below the norm (brown line).

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Hospitalizations are down. This graph lists covid19 visits based on age. There are local hospitals overloaded or nearly so, but that doesn’t match the overall trend nationwide. Note there is a slight uptick but nothing above the dashed line. Also note we never went over 16% (remember we were told we would hit 100% and overwhelm the entire healthcare system.) The only place that got overwhelmed was New York that I know of – and they weren’t really overwhelmed – they barely used their hospital ship and didn’t really open any of the temporary military hospitals/hotels.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Another interesting infographic shows real time hospital utilization. In this case I selected New York (the largest caseload). They are 22.48% no where near 100% utilization. Proof that there are no true “hot spots” nationally (again there may be locally).

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Looking exclusively at Covid19 Death vs Infection rates the graphs are opposite. Note the increasing trend started June 14, so we are more than 14 days in without a corresponding increase in hospitalization or deaths.

Source: Google Wiki (https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+19+deaths&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS890US890&oq=covid+19+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l4j69i60l3.5487j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

The graph below is the “scary upward trend” – but note it doesn’t correlate to hospitalizations OR deaths. We have MORE than flattened the curve, now we are flattening livelihoods and freedom instead.

Source: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS890US890&sxsrf=ALeKk01HNsbaJpw-jCiRN6nM00-nyPhkcg%3A1594399946136&ei=ypwIX-PdB5T0tAbU0ZvYCA&q=covid+19+cases&oq=covid+19+cases&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIFCAAQsQMyCAgAELEDEIMBMggIABCxAxCDATICCAAyBQgAELEDMgIIADICCAAyAggAMgUIABCxAzIICAAQsQMQgwE6BAgAEEdQhr4BWJLEAWCxxQFoAHADeACAAWGIAdADkgEBNZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjj6qzTksPqAhUUOs0KHdToBosQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

By all measures that matter, the situation is improving. Before you say the hospitalizations will spike, the 14 day infection / hospitalization cycle is not reflecting spikes (we are over 3 weeks since June 14 when the upward trend started).

There are LOCAL situations where the hospitals are full or nearly full – that is why we have a hospital SYSTEM in the US that allows patients to be transferred.

We are collectively in single digit to low double digit hospitalization rates in 95%+ areas of the USA. There is no need for the fear mongering, the high infection – low death rate ratio should be GOOD NEWS.SOURCE DATA:CDC hospitalization rate decreases (curve) graph with red

*FOCUS ON THE FACTS* not the hyperbole

Categories
Prepare

Why Should I Prepare?

The simple answer is because bad things WILL happen. The odds are stacked in favor the house. The problem is in our case, the “house” is the bad luck.

Planning and preparing never matches reality. But a plan and the resources, process and knowledge can be applied when things change.

“In preparing for battle, I have always found that
plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”

Dwight D Eisenhower

The example below shows the likelihood or “odds” of a given event. Note these are our personal estimates of odds. You can calculate using your own numbers.

Estimated Event Likelihood in a 20 year window

The main point is that in a 20 year window, some things that seem unlikely become far more likely. If you extend everything to a lifetime of 78 years the odds get even higher. (see below)

Likelihood of an event in 78 years (normal lifespan)

These are estimates only and intended to show that risk varies with the type of event, region and length. I am positive some of the numbers are wrong, but they are not wildly wrong.

Use these numbers as starting point. You should plan on the likely risks and you will likely protect yourself from at least a portion of the less likely but bigger impact risks.  The impact could be no power, no fuel and no transportation during a flood or snowstorm or earthquake, even if it is limited to your location.

No plan of operations extends with any certainty
beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.

Helmuth von Moltke 

Calculating the odds of a Hurricane

Some math will help you figure out the likelihood of a risk. The chance of a hurricane for someone in a hurricane prone area is 5% or higher each year.  That means you have a 95% chance annually of NOT being in a hurricane. For a 10 year period you multiple .95 by itself 10 times or .95 to the 10th power.  That means it’s only 40% chance of NOT having a hurricane over 10 years. In reverse that means you have a 60% chance that there WILL be a hurricane in 10 years. This varies a LOT where you live. That is one of the reasons insurance companies will generally charge a lot for hurricane insurance, the odds are not in their favor.

Calculating the odds of a Solar Flare (CME)

A major solar flare is also called a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). I is similar to an EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) from a nuclear bomb – but could last much longer.  Solar flares hit earth regularly and the odds are that a big one will eventually hit earth. 

The 1859 CME light show and electromagnetic storm lasted for two days.  It affected the entire planet. Telegraph wires started on fire, telegraph machines scorched paper printouts, stunned operators with shocks, transmitted gibberish, and continued working for hours even after being unplugged from the batteries that powered them. Even at this lower level it would be devastating to our modern electronic environment. A tiny solar flare event caused Toronto to be without power for an entire day in 1989. 

What are the odds?  It’s 2 times in 160 years, or a 1.25% chance each year.  Lets even skip the small one in 1989 and assume only 1 in 160 years.  Once in 160 years is a .63% chance. The math says the chance of a major solar flare is 6.08% in 10 years or about 1 in 16.  So it seems crazy because the odds of 0.63% per year are low, but the math does not support luck; luck runs out.  

For more info on electro magnetic pulses see: https://commonsensehome.com/electromagnetic-pulse-emp/

What are the Odds of War?

Calculating the likelihood of local, regional or global wars is hard. Given human history and current behavior of governments around the world, the odds, unfortunately, are increasing. As noted by BJ Campbell since 1453 we have seen 465 sovereign nations disappear.  That means there is an annual 82% chance annually that a country will cease to exist. Now that is less likely in the larger countries? No.  

The odds are bad. From his article “France had a 30-year war, a seven-year war, a particularly nasty revolution, a counter-revolution, that Napoleon thing, and a couple of world wars tacked on the end”.  The US has had two major events since its founding in 1678. Again from BJ Campbell, that is roughly two major civil wars in 340 years so 0.5882% per year risk. That means in your lifetime there is a 37% of another major internal US war.  

If you add in WWI, WWII, Korea and Vietnam means the risk jumps from .588% to 1.765% and over 78.7 years (average lifespan) the odds of war impacting us jumps from 37% to 75%.  Unfortunately the odds and not in our favor. The higher number is albeit a smaller impact.

What are the Odds of Terrorism?

Add in terrorism and local idiots with a gun and the odds of a small impact to your life jump to uncomfortable levels.  We also have variable risks from widespread man-made disasters impacting fuel prices, food supply, power grid, and of course pandemics.

The good news is it seems smaller conflicts around the globe have been letting off steam for the possible larger wars since WWII. Over the past decade antagonism has been building up between many groups around the world. A big example is radical Islam and anyone who opposes it. Increasing demand of growing populations for land and resources will also raise tensions.  From 355ad to 1291ad there were 309 muslim wars, invasions or major attacks. That is a 33% per year chance for an attack.

From 1970 to 2019 there were 282 muslim terrorist attacks as reported by WIKIPEDIA, which in my opinion is a low estimate.  But using that estimate that means there are 5.75 attacks EVERY YEAR worldwide. In the US alone it is 10 in that period so that is a 20% chance annually – and given under reporting it is closer to 30%. If you only take big ones there are a couple that killed over 100 so using the math, the odds are again in the 30% to 70% range in our lifetime, depending on how big the event is you are planning on.

But even with that high number it only measures the likelihood of the EVENT not of you being killed in the event. To calculate that we need to add in population – which dramatically lowers your odds.

What are the Odds of Financial Collapse?

Financial collapse has happened many times before, with smaller short term recessions and full blown depressions. We are seeing major financial problems periodically throughout the world. Combine financial instability with increased instability in the middle east and you increase the odds of at least a global recession if not a full global financial failure. Add a full war into the mix and the odds go way up. Many people believe it is almost inevitable that we will see massive inflation based on government spending and monetary policy from 2005 through 2017.

Even if its not the end of the world, we can expect some serious financial events because of government deficit spending, the same thing that would happen if we spent more than we had individually (just multiply it by billions of dollars).

What are the Odds that We Will Run Out of Natural Resources?

There are groups of people who believe we will run out of natural resources (iron, wood, water…) fill in your favorite item. This might even apply to food which is more logical as food production varies with weather which is quite hard to predict, much less control. 

Improvements in reducing waste should be made, as well as developing new, lower impact technologies to use resources more wisely, and to recycle existing waste.

The odds are you will get older; so building your home or modifying your home to better fit you as you age is a good investment. Think “Cradle to Cradle” design. For more information see our article: Aging in Place – Making Your Home Livable for a Lifetime

Food Supply Interruption

Two years of even minor interruptions in food production would impact global food prices. Make the interruptions medium or large and it would be equal to or worse than a global economic collapse. This is a serious area of concern. 

What are the Odds of a Major Power Outage Taking Out a Large Section of the Electrical Grid?

In a nutshell unless something changes, brownouts and power outages will spread throughout the US. Regardless of the big events, small interruptions in service are likely and actually likely to get worse given an aging power system. Worse yet power plants being retired far faster than we build new ones. 

Think of it this way, if the electricity isn’t working in your house and you don’t have light, water or heat, it really doesn’t matter why. 

What are the odds in the real world?

When you pile all the possible bad things together the odds keep getting higher and higher that “something” will happen in a 10 year period.  A civil/national war has a 37% chance in 10 years. A hurricane is 92% chance in 10 years. A solar flare is a 6% chance in 10 years. All these increase the likelihood of something bad happening.  This is why there are “force majeure clauses” in every insurance agreement and important agreement.  Shit happens and it is well known but not often discussed.

With all this doom and gloom we should all be dead or know someone who was killed in some awful way. The odds of an event are the NOT the same as the odds of the event impacting you. The odds for a lot of these events are CUT by population and location. Most terrorist events have a local impact only. Hurricanes only hit specific areas. But that is no consolation for those people caught in the events. Plan to be caught in the event, but God willing none of us will be involved. But God gave us a brain, hands and we resources so we need to prepare.

What are MY odds?

Look at your family history. How many times have you or your parents lost a job. What are the economic conditions where you live? How many times have you lived through a minor or major disaster? Use the math and you can estimate how much money, time and resources on preparing. This will give you a realistic estimate of your personal, family and/or community risks.

Predict what is likely. Plan on what to do. And it will Prepare you for those and other events you might not predict.

Personal example: My wife and I had been planning on saving money to buy a new 4wd vehicle and add an outbuilding. I had been gainfully employed sometimes with multiple jobs at once for 20+ years. Then I was laid off unexpectedly during a merger.

  1. Our prediction was to buy a new van and build and outbuilding. We also predicted likely power interruptions, and some minor food supply interruptions.
  2. Our plan was saving money and stocking on up beef (frozen in a chest freezer). Long term our plan was to be more self sufficient, and have enough to survive likely problems and likely natural disasters.
  3. We were prepared for success and some likely events. Then I was laid off. We didn’t plan on that, but the cash and meat in the freezer held us through until I found another job.

No man is worth his salt who is not ready at all times to risk his well-being, to risk his body, to risk his life, in a great cause.

– Theodore Roosevelt

Conclusion

This information may seem overwhelming.  Just focus on preparing the basics. We can’t spend ALL our resources on That will put you ahead of most people. Stockpile food and water, and have extra fuel. Balance all the crazy input with what you know to be reasonable, trust your gut and have a plan.

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Coronavirus – Everything You Need to Know about Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2)

Updated 3/30/2020: This article covers the basics of Coronavirus Pandemic aka Covid19 aka SARS-CoV-2. We review its symptoms, how dangerous it is, what it will do to the economy, how to avoid it and myths about it.

World wide there are 766,336 cases resulting in 36,873 deaths. USA has 153,246 cases with 2467 deaths. New cases will continue to increase rapidly as more test kits become available.

When this is all said and done I estimate that death rates will be roughly 3x to 5x influenza, not 10x or more as the media has been reporting (that means .3% to as high as .8% not 10%). I base this on sampling data, and it is also supported by the cruise ship data.