Categories
Community Prepare

Infection Rates DONT MATTER

Fear mongering by the media and gov officials is rampant. Stop paying attention to infections and start paying attention to hospitalization and death rates. Here are facts.

Nationwide “excess deaths” (total deaths) are down. Note they are below the norm (brown line).

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Hospitalizations are down. This graph lists covid19 visits based on age. There are local hospitals overloaded or nearly so, but that doesn’t match the overall trend nationwide. Note there is a slight uptick but nothing above the dashed line. Also note we never went over 16% (remember we were told we would hit 100% and overwhelm the entire healthcare system.) The only place that got overwhelmed was New York that I know of – and they weren’t really overwhelmed – they barely used their hospital ship and didn’t really open any of the temporary military hospitals/hotels.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Another interesting infographic shows real time hospital utilization. In this case I selected New York (the largest caseload). They are 22.48% no where near 100% utilization. Proof that there are no true “hot spots” nationally (again there may be locally).

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Looking exclusively at Covid19 Death vs Infection rates the graphs are opposite. Note the increasing trend started June 14, so we are more than 14 days in without a corresponding increase in hospitalization or deaths.

Source: Google Wiki (https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+19+deaths&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS890US890&oq=covid+19+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l4j69i60l3.5487j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

The graph below is the “scary upward trend” – but note it doesn’t correlate to hospitalizations OR deaths. We have MORE than flattened the curve, now we are flattening livelihoods and freedom instead.

Source: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS890US890&sxsrf=ALeKk01HNsbaJpw-jCiRN6nM00-nyPhkcg%3A1594399946136&ei=ypwIX-PdB5T0tAbU0ZvYCA&q=covid+19+cases&oq=covid+19+cases&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIFCAAQsQMyCAgAELEDEIMBMggIABCxAxCDATICCAAyBQgAELEDMgIIADICCAAyAggAMgUIABCxAzIICAAQsQMQgwE6BAgAEEdQhr4BWJLEAWCxxQFoAHADeACAAWGIAdADkgEBNZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjj6qzTksPqAhUUOs0KHdToBosQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

By all measures that matter, the situation is improving. Before you say the hospitalizations will spike, the 14 day infection / hospitalization cycle is not reflecting spikes (we are over 3 weeks since June 14 when the upward trend started).

There are LOCAL situations where the hospitals are full or nearly full – that is why we have a hospital SYSTEM in the US that allows patients to be transferred.

We are collectively in single digit to low double digit hospitalization rates in 95%+ areas of the USA. There is no need for the fear mongering, the high infection – low death rate ratio should be GOOD NEWS.SOURCE DATA:CDC hospitalization rate decreases (curve) graph with red

*FOCUS ON THE FACTS* not the hyperbole

Categories
Community

9 Reasons why we need to open NOW!

In a nutshell we should open up NOW and stay open, unless something changes dramatically. The Covid19 risk is within the same risk level as historical influenza outbreaks that did NOT result in economic shutdown. The number of studies that debunk the 3.5% and 7% death rates are overwhelming.
Last updated: 5/22/2020

Blue “sick person sampling” vs “Random Sampling” vs 100% sampling

One other key thing. Infection testing is less important that anti-body testing. If you have the anti-bodies you cant be seriously infected with the same virus strain again.

Reason 1: The Death Rate is a LOT lower than reported.

The number reported is correct except no one understands that it is knowingly wrong because of sample error. The blue columns are what are regularly reported on TV. The real numbers are 5 to 20x lower

The ACTUAL random samples (below) are in grey and orange. The random or 100% sampling death rates are between 0.39% and 1.47% not the 3.5% or 7% being reported. The German study was the lowest of all and had 100% sampling.

The difference between the John’s Hopkins numbers and these studies is purely sampling bias or “error”. The blue represents a sampling of tested sick people. The orange and grey represent a sampling of an entire group of people (those sick and those who don’t appear to be sick).

Recently the “death rate” fell from 7% to 6.01% – that is highly unlikely, and indicates wider testing not decreased lethality.

What is Sampling Bias?

Nearly all the currently reported data is misleading. A simple example of sampling bias: Only sample the fish in a grocery store. You measure size and type. The sample shows all the fish are fairly large, uniform and of limited number of species. If I go out and randomly catch fish in rivers, lakes and oceans, the size and types of fish vary widely. (sample bias vs random sampling)

What is Omission Bias?

Omission bias is reporting a fact but skipping related facts. Example: News headlines say “infection rates spiking!” but they fail to report real data like hospitalization utilization compared to normal hospitalization rates and death rates compared to NORMAL death rates. Infections alone don’t really mean anything.

Another omission is that the widely reported information is ONLY for those sampled (it is not random sampling). We rarely here about random sampling statistics.

Read more about sampling bias

Reason 2: Most Hospitals are Not Overloaded

We were told we were trying to flatten the curve. Remember this graph?

In this example above, we all get Covid19 but we get it slow enough that we didn’t overwhelm healthcare. We didn’t overwhelm the system. We flattened it completely. In fact we have created a situation where it is TOO flat. As an example in Wisconsin the ICU load was less than 10% NORMAL utilization and 7.6% of max utilization.

With this very low utilization, the hospitals will go bankrupt quickly, so unless the goal was to bankrupt hospitals – we need to change our behavior. Source: https://www.wha.org/COVID19Update

The blue line (bottom) is even misleading. The “max” for that line is 1442 without the military hospitals. See link above for current data.

Another way to look at the numbers


Image: Wisconsin ICU Bed Utilization
** does not include temporary military hospitals which are EMPTY.

Wisconsin regularly reported increases in hospitalization. But the fact is that hospitals in Wisconsin were regularly below 20% utilization from April through May 2020. Nationwide over 256 hospitals had to lay off staff. There was not a huge spike nationwide, there were spikes in specific locations (just like a bad flu season). https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/49-hospitals-furloughing-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html.

Reason 3: Only 15% or less of us are at risk

We were told, we are ALL at risk! We are in this together. A half truth. Yes, everyone is at risk. We are at risk of dying from pretty much everything and there is a 100% chance we will all die. The facts are that the risk is high for elderly and people with pre-existing conditions, and very low for everyone else (see graphs)

Remember, even these numbers are biased because they are not random sampling of the population. This is ONLY those who were infected or suspected of being infected.

Image: Age distribution – from information is beautiful

We should be focusing our limited resources on the 15% of the population that is at risk, not the 85% of us that are at low or very low risk.

Reason 4: Yes people are dying, but not a lot more than normal

Cold hard math, unpleasant, uncomfortable thoughts. The numbers of people dying are not significantly higher than normal. It feels like this cant be true. The news says its unprecedented but the numbers don’t lie.

Here is a graph from CDC of normal (orange line) and actual deaths blue. Note only two spikes in 2018 and one in 2020 – and note not hugely different. For historical comparison we had influeza spikes that were equal or higher per 100k and we didn’t put 22 mil into unemployment and bankrupt 4% to 12% of small businesses.

Image: CDC Normal Death Rates see spikes in 2018 and 2020

If the .39% death rate is true that is 2.7 times as dangerous as normal flu (like the 1998 flu season).

Image: CDC Normal Death Rates
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Reason 5: Big Events haven’t resulted in increased death

Big events such as: elections, rallies and reopening entire states have had no impact on death rates. Georgia re-opened April 24th.

May 13th Report – the curve to the right shows decreases. Even though they opened up. Source: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

On May 22nd the predicted 1000s of Georgia deaths didn’t materialize. The graph below confirms the graph above. At minimum, there is no increase in deaths, even with the state being “open”. 28 days later there is a downward trend in deaths (or at least no significant increase).

May 22nd report

On April 7th Wisconsin had an in person election with 300,000+ people participating. Wisconsin had a rally with 3000+ people (mostly without masks) on April 24th, and 28 days later there is no big spike in deaths. The predicted 1000s of deaths in Wisconsin didn’t materialize.

Wisconsin Covid Death Graph Source

The following are other examples of decreasing or stable trends after reopening. See CNN link for updated data

Alaska opened April 24 – no spike: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-coronavirus-trnd/
Opened May 4th: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-coronavirus-trnd/

Reason 6: Staying inside will not stop the virus.

The idea that staying inside will “stop the virus” is purely wishful thinking. WHO, CDC and all other agencies all expected us to get the virus. The only goal was to reduce the number of people infected at one time. If we stay inside more all we do is SLOW the spread, we dont STOP the spread.

You may have seen a graph on social media called “flattening the curve.” That graph shows a tall, narrow curve and a short, wide curve. Through the graph is a line that shows how many sick people U.S. hospitals can treat. The tall curve goes above the line. That means too many people are sick at one time: We won’t have enough hospital beds for all the people who will need treatment. The flatter curve shows what happens if the spread of the virus slows down. The same number of people may get sick, but the infections happen over a longer span of time, so hospitals can treat everyone.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/qa/what-is-flattening-the-curve

The CDC, WHO and other medical agencies never said staying home would “stop the virus”. Staying home only delays things – it will not stop Covid19.

Also, we need real herd immunity so we can protect those at most risk. Thinking that hiding and still going out only to Walmart or Costco will somehow “protect us” is not realistic.

Reason 7: Staying locked down hurts and kills people

We have 22million+ people already unemployed. In a good year we have 45,000 suicides – the economic crash is NOT going to help that number, and increases in suicides are reported widely. Decreases in GDP will result in decreased govt revenue which will result in decreased govt support for those in need of help. LOST REVENUE WILL RISK LIVES.

Related articles

The UN is noting that worldwide famine is likely because of Covid. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

We are hiding at home from a virus that we will get sooner or later. We are trading higher suicides, higher poverty, loss of freedom, reduced revenue for critical services, and directly leading to famine overseas to simply put off the inevitable?

At some point we NEED to get infected. If we stick our head in the sand, this fall 2020 and winter 2021 version of Covid19 will be even worse (read about the Spanish flu if you haven’t). We need to build up immunity

Reason 8: The Vaccine won’t solve it

Even if we get a vaccine (which I hope is safe and effective). It is likely to be at most 20% effective. So we are going to see people get infected and some will die. That is a fact, that unfortunately cannot be avoided. Once we reopen (even with a vaccine) we will see increased infections and death. Likely to exceed a 100 million infections nationwide and 300,000 deaths when it is all done.

Delaying the infection is all we can do, and the WAY we are delaying now destroys our econmony which destroys our ability to help those most in need.

Reason 9: Return Choice to the People

This is our constitutional right, and the government is overstepping by taking it away. I talked with my parents who are 77 and 81. They would trade their lives to protect their children and grandchildren in a minute. I don’t want to make that trade, but I cannot lock them away either. And WE don’t have the right to take away other peoples children’s futures.

This is a serious, real dilemma. But we have been and I hope we continue to be focused on freedom, shared risk and personal responsibility. Recommending behavior and allowing the PEOPLE to decide is the only way we are going to succeed in the long run.

Why Masks Should Not Be Mandatory

It is ok to recommend masks, but mandating the use of masks is not supported by studies. Quite the contrary, there are numerous studies and reports that indicated low value and some limited risks with ongoing use of face mask.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32027586/

Further, non-medical, home made or “cloth” masks are even less effective. Also, reuse of masks introduces other bacterial and viral risks, which have limited studies, some of which indicate secondary bacterial and secondary transmission risks.

References

First Published May 15th 2020.

Categories
Defense

Personal Defense Weapons Basics

FIRST, research personal defense, get books and search the web you have many inexpensive resources that could help save your life. To get you thinking, here are a few key concepts. It is likely this review will leave you with more questions than answers, but that is the intent. Personal defense is not an easy subject, and if there were one best way everyone would be doing it.

3 Principles of Defense

Learn. Your brain is your weapon. Educate yourself. Remember, any object you buy can be broken, lost, stolen or destroyed.  Education can be passed down and cannot stolen.  

Prepare physically. Learn Judo, Taekwondo or other personal defense arts. Get yourself in shape, and prepare supplies for every day and even uncommon emergencies.

Practice. A skill learned or weapon bought and never used is a complete waste. With weapons it is worse because the bad guy could use the weapon against you.

Quality Matters 

Buy quality items.  That doesn’t mean you don’t buy inexpensive backups, but it does mean purchasing good knives, rifles, shotguns and pistols you can pass down to your grandchildren.  In the whole scheme of things, you might be planning for a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situation, but odds are it won’t happen.

A SHTF situation will more likely impact your kids or their grand-kids, so you could be making a purchase that will save your family 50 to 100 years from now.  Buy with the long picture in mind, buy stuff that can be repaired.  If you don’t have this perspective, go ahead and buy inexpensive alternatives.

Defense Considerations

If you are uncomfortable with the idea of a weapon such as a gun or knife, consider getting training in any number of self defense programs from Jujitsu, Judo, Boxing or Karate to more intense programs such as Krav Maga (Israel personal combat training). 

Alternative Defense: You could select other techniques such as loud personal alarms, pepper spray, tasers or a guard dog.  Research your options.

Responsibility.  Any weapon increases YOUR level of responsibility.  Even a knife increases responsibility, risk and need for control.  If you have a knife, pistol or rifle it could be used against you, or against those you intend to protect.   If you are armed, in a defense situation with multiple people, you will likely be the leader by default.  Simply being prepared may put you in a leadership position.  Being armed will make you a target.  The decision to arm yourself has ramifications, and even the simple act of purchasing a weapon is a big decision.

Laws.  Although this is probably the last thing you would think about when being attacked, especially in a SHTF situation, you should research the laws.  In some areas your only legal option is to run, in other areas you can stand your ground through laws that support “castle doctrine” and self preservation.  You need to research what applies to you.  Research the facts before you support any pro or anti-gun group.  Some facts are not pretty and may feel counter intuitive, but knowing the facts is like having a weapon that no one can take from you.

Situational Awareness: Choose a weapon for the situation.  If a gun is illegal or requires unmanageable controls or you cant deal with it or the gun cannot be carried in a particular situation… skip it and carry the knife or pepper spray.  If you are likely to be in wet/snow, dry/hot areas consider the weapon and its requirements.  If you have to carry a weapon long distance consider weight, reliability, maintenance, ammo weight and cleaning requirements.

Proportional Response 

The idea of proportional response is to match your aggression and weapons to that of the opponent.  Forget it, avoid it, never follow it. This is NOT a safe solution for an individual or group.  Dropping to a knife if the other guy has a knife (when you have a gun) creates the maximum risk for everyone involved.  This creates a situation where there is no clearly superior force.  

To say I strongly disagree with the idea of proportional response is a complete understatement.  Follow the logic.  If a person fights you with their fists, you don’t pull your knife or gun, but instead you just give them a fair fight.  This gives the person the idea they might win, when in reality you have two more levels of defense.  Another theory is that you only pull the knife, again bad idea.  Using maximum threat and force is safer for you and the aggressor.  Stop threat escalation if at all possible.  Reducing the combat situation protects everyone.  If you go to the highest point the aggressor is likely to retreat and you end up controlling the situation.  Overkill is good.  But overkill requires you to be trained and capable of using & controlling the weapon AND you must be able to manage the situation.

Armed (non-gun) defense

Other non-firearm options include: a knife, club, pepper spray, mace, paintball gun (with stink/skunk rounds), brass knuckles and numerous other options.  There are crossover items such as the stun gun which is incapacitating but also more risky than pepper spray.  Pepper spray is an inflammatory, mace is a irritant.  Pepper spray is the more effective of the two.  There are laws in many states regarding purchase/use of mace & pepper spray, it is not legal in many states.  RESEARCH BEFORE BUYING.  

For pepper spray consider the Sabre Red or Bear pepper spray, it is the right size, has good range and is effective and has good reviews, even by people who have had it used on them.

Accessibility

Weapons (having them accessible and ready to use is the key).  Owning a pistol, rifle, knife, shotgun or pepper spray and having it locked away in a safe, does you no good in an emergency situation. 

Comfort & Confidence

Choose a weapon you are comfortable with and a weapon you are truly willing to use.  Pulling a gun, knife or even pepper spray and being afraid to use the weapon in a confrontation is worse than not having it at all.  It makes you a target, and can result in that weapon be used AGAINST you.

Practice

You practice dancing, driving, sports, games, swimming or scuba diving.  If you have chosen to use a weapon and/or physical self defense; you need to practice. It is not an option.

Maintenance. 

Even a simple knife requires sharpening and cleaning.  A firearm such as a revolver, semi-auto pistol, rifle or shotgun will complicate maintenance – and may pose legal/operational challenges.  Remember you must maintain whatever you purchase. It even applies to martial arts, refresh, retrain, practice.

By in pairs or multiples

When considering weapons consider buying them in pairs.  Why get two of everything?  Because if the SHTF situation occurs you won’t easily be able to get parts.  Having two (or more) allows you arm yourself and someone else, and a team can defend better than an individual.  Two people practicing can encourage each other train, when alone either might skip the training/practice.   

Even without a SHTF type situation, things break, parts fail and things get lost.  If you find something you like, get two (or more).  Manufacturers stop building a model and having a few means you have parts.  Even if you have a problem with a particular weapon you would likely have the same problem with the various “duplicates”.  This makes maintenance, spare parts, and handling easier to deal with. 

Also if one is damaged, lost or must be abandoned, you have a backup that you are familiar with.  If you have close family or friends consider everyone purchasing the same items (if they are proficient with the weapon).  Groups can share maintenance parts, tools, ammunition and most of all expertise.  This is true of all devices, tools and weapons AND even martial arts.

Knives

Many people carry a pocket knife.  If you don’t have a pocket knife, get one.  If you have a pocket knife, consider upgrading it.  Find a knife you are comfortable carrying and using.  Practice with it, use it, and have at least one spare.  The knife can serve multiple purposes. 

For a first time buyer consider one that is lightweight, a small folding Spyderco or Buck are good starting points.  If you are willing to invest a bit more, consider a Benchmade, Kershaw or Ontario. Consider keeping one the same as your EDC permanently in your car kit, or at least an Buck emergency knife with a seat belt cutter and glass punch.

Guns, Rifles and Shotguns. 

Before you buy any firearm, get training.  Take classes, learn from someone who has experience.  Try out various weapons you would consider purchasing, fire the weapons as much as possible.  Define the purpose and use of the weapon, before you buy it, hunting defense or both.  Are guns legal where you are?  Are there rules in your city that might limit your choices?  Consider where you will store it, protect it and keep it out of the hands of children and others you would not want to handle it.  Where will you practice with it?  Consider if you can afford ammo and how you will acquire ammo, and consider the legal and personal moral feelings of taking action whether hunting or self defense.  Will you carry the weapon all the time? Remember if you don’t have it on you, you cannot it use for defense – whether that is around the house or full time conceal carry.

Consider ammunition

Sticking with specific type of ammo across your weapons allows you to stockpile.  Also if you are truly preparing for a highly unlikely SHTF situation or Zombie apocalypse, you might already be thinking about reloading your own ammo.  If you reload you probably want to select weapons based on the ammo you can reload.  Remember though, that the various ammo types were created for a reason. 

Limiting your ammo to two or three types of rounds makes stockpiling easier, and gives you more flexibility in ammo use.  The 45ACP has great stopping power but weighs 4.69lbs vs 100 rounds; for 9mm it weighs 2.63lbs.  In simpler terms the 9mm is a lighter round from a stopping power perspective than a 45ACP but its also weighs nearly 44% less, so you could physically carry more rounds.

Limiting your ammo, also limits the tools at your disposal.   You might need 380acp for conceal, 9mm for bulk carry and want 45 for open carry, plus shotgun, 223/5.56, 7.62×39, 308/7.62 or 30-06.  Match the tool (weapon) to YOUR need.

A couple years ago I came across a study by Greg Ellifritz on the web, it was eye opening.  In Ellifritz’s words “there really isn’t that much difference between most defensive handgun rounds and calibers. None is a death ray, but most work adequately…even the lowly .22s.

I’ve stopped worrying about trying to find the “ultimate” bullet. There isn’t one. And I’ve stopped feeling the need to strap on my .45 every time I leave the house out of fear that my 9mm doesn’t have enough “stopping power.” Folks, carry what you want. Caliber really isn’t all that important.”

Greg Ellifritz

Based on this, I recommend you get the highest caliber that you can shoot well and meets your needs.  That might mean you have 380acp for conceal carry pistols, 9mm or .40cal or 45acp for holster carry, and shotgun for bird hunting, and 223/556 for home defense and medium game.  You might have 308/30-06 for deer and large game at distance.  Know what you need to do and match the tools to the need.  An original copy of his posting http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2745992/posts

From my perspective, Greg Ellifritz study, means you will likely need 2 to 3 rounds in a stressful situation to stop the target (regardless of the ammo type).  The smaller and lighter 9mm round allows you to carry more rounds, in a smaller lighter space. So you can get more rounds off, and might be more accurate with the lighter round.

Personally the 45ACP was more appealing to me, as we were looking to it for stopping power, but the % fatal shots challenges my belief.   It is 29% fatal while the 22short/and LR is 34%.   This resulted in my change of opinion on weapons and caliber.

I switched to focusing almost exclusively on the most accurate largest round we could manage.  Instead I moved to 380acp/9mm for conceal and manageable recoil, and the AR/AK for adults that can manage the recoil.  

Rifles vs. Pistols

The rifle and shotgun are obviously heavier than pistols and more accurate over a greater distance.  Again you need to consider what your purpose for the weapon is.  In self defense situations rifles are 30% to 40% more effective in self defense (per Elifritz study). 

A pistol is less likely to stop an aggressor, or kill prey when hunting than a rifle.  The longer barrel results in higher velocity and better aim.  Better aim means better knockdown. 

Looking at head shots in Elifritz’s table; a rifle is roughly 10% to 40% better for accuracy on a head shot and measurably better for fatal shots (roughly double that of the pistol).  Overall the pistol is used for retreat or get to your long gun; alternately as a last resort. The pistol is not the 1st choice if a long barrel weapon is available.

Pistols – Semiautomatic vs. Revolver

The simplest most reliable weapon is the revolver.  In a risky situation, with one on one, it is most likely to fire and recover from a jam or misfire.  The semi-auto generally gives more rounds, is easier to conceal and allows for faster reload if you have extra magazines.  The semiautomatic pistol and rifle are widely available as is the revolver and single shot rifle. 

In SHTF the revolver tends to be the best as there aren’t many moving parts to fail.

Conclusion:

Purchase a gun that you can fire accurately. Purchase what meets YOUR needs (not mine or someone else’s).   Accuracy is more important than caliber, and practice makes perfect.  A good small gun in your pocket is much better than a great or perfect gun in your safe.  A low caliber that can hit the target is far more valuable than stray shots from a larger pistol.

Good luck and keep your powder dry.

WeAreTheBackupPlan and James Franklin provides this information as reference only.  James challenges you to do your own research, educate yourself and confirm anything you have questions on.  Educating yourself is KEY!

References

Related Links

Categories
Prepare

Why Should I Prepare?

The simple answer is because bad things WILL happen. The odds are stacked in favor the house. The problem is in our case, the “house” is the bad luck.

Planning and preparing never matches reality. But a plan and the resources, process and knowledge can be applied when things change.

“In preparing for battle, I have always found that
plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”

Dwight D Eisenhower

The example below shows the likelihood or “odds” of a given event. Note these are our personal estimates of odds. You can calculate using your own numbers.

Estimated Event Likelihood in a 20 year window

The main point is that in a 20 year window, some things that seem unlikely become far more likely. If you extend everything to a lifetime of 78 years the odds get even higher. (see below)

Likelihood of an event in 78 years (normal lifespan)

These are estimates only and intended to show that risk varies with the type of event, region and length. I am positive some of the numbers are wrong, but they are not wildly wrong.

Use these numbers as starting point. You should plan on the likely risks and you will likely protect yourself from at least a portion of the less likely but bigger impact risks.  The impact could be no power, no fuel and no transportation during a flood or snowstorm or earthquake, even if it is limited to your location.

No plan of operations extends with any certainty
beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.

Helmuth von Moltke 

Calculating the odds of a Hurricane

Some math will help you figure out the likelihood of a risk. The chance of a hurricane for someone in a hurricane prone area is 5% or higher each year.  That means you have a 95% chance annually of NOT being in a hurricane. For a 10 year period you multiple .95 by itself 10 times or .95 to the 10th power.  That means it’s only 40% chance of NOT having a hurricane over 10 years. In reverse that means you have a 60% chance that there WILL be a hurricane in 10 years. This varies a LOT where you live. That is one of the reasons insurance companies will generally charge a lot for hurricane insurance, the odds are not in their favor.

Calculating the odds of a Solar Flare (CME)

A major solar flare is also called a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). I is similar to an EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) from a nuclear bomb – but could last much longer.  Solar flares hit earth regularly and the odds are that a big one will eventually hit earth. 

The 1859 CME light show and electromagnetic storm lasted for two days.  It affected the entire planet. Telegraph wires started on fire, telegraph machines scorched paper printouts, stunned operators with shocks, transmitted gibberish, and continued working for hours even after being unplugged from the batteries that powered them. Even at this lower level it would be devastating to our modern electronic environment. A tiny solar flare event caused Toronto to be without power for an entire day in 1989. 

What are the odds?  It’s 2 times in 160 years, or a 1.25% chance each year.  Lets even skip the small one in 1989 and assume only 1 in 160 years.  Once in 160 years is a .63% chance. The math says the chance of a major solar flare is 6.08% in 10 years or about 1 in 16.  So it seems crazy because the odds of 0.63% per year are low, but the math does not support luck; luck runs out.  

For more info on electro magnetic pulses see: https://commonsensehome.com/electromagnetic-pulse-emp/

What are the Odds of War?

Calculating the likelihood of local, regional or global wars is hard. Given human history and current behavior of governments around the world, the odds, unfortunately, are increasing. As noted by BJ Campbell since 1453 we have seen 465 sovereign nations disappear.  That means there is an annual 82% chance annually that a country will cease to exist. Now that is less likely in the larger countries? No.  

The odds are bad. From his article “France had a 30-year war, a seven-year war, a particularly nasty revolution, a counter-revolution, that Napoleon thing, and a couple of world wars tacked on the end”.  The US has had two major events since its founding in 1678. Again from BJ Campbell, that is roughly two major civil wars in 340 years so 0.5882% per year risk. That means in your lifetime there is a 37% of another major internal US war.  

If you add in WWI, WWII, Korea and Vietnam means the risk jumps from .588% to 1.765% and over 78.7 years (average lifespan) the odds of war impacting us jumps from 37% to 75%.  Unfortunately the odds and not in our favor. The higher number is albeit a smaller impact.

What are the Odds of Terrorism?

Add in terrorism and local idiots with a gun and the odds of a small impact to your life jump to uncomfortable levels.  We also have variable risks from widespread man-made disasters impacting fuel prices, food supply, power grid, and of course pandemics.

The good news is it seems smaller conflicts around the globe have been letting off steam for the possible larger wars since WWII. Over the past decade antagonism has been building up between many groups around the world. A big example is radical Islam and anyone who opposes it. Increasing demand of growing populations for land and resources will also raise tensions.  From 355ad to 1291ad there were 309 muslim wars, invasions or major attacks. That is a 33% per year chance for an attack.

From 1970 to 2019 there were 282 muslim terrorist attacks as reported by WIKIPEDIA, which in my opinion is a low estimate.  But using that estimate that means there are 5.75 attacks EVERY YEAR worldwide. In the US alone it is 10 in that period so that is a 20% chance annually – and given under reporting it is closer to 30%. If you only take big ones there are a couple that killed over 100 so using the math, the odds are again in the 30% to 70% range in our lifetime, depending on how big the event is you are planning on.

But even with that high number it only measures the likelihood of the EVENT not of you being killed in the event. To calculate that we need to add in population – which dramatically lowers your odds.

What are the Odds of Financial Collapse?

Financial collapse has happened many times before, with smaller short term recessions and full blown depressions. We are seeing major financial problems periodically throughout the world. Combine financial instability with increased instability in the middle east and you increase the odds of at least a global recession if not a full global financial failure. Add a full war into the mix and the odds go way up. Many people believe it is almost inevitable that we will see massive inflation based on government spending and monetary policy from 2005 through 2017.

Even if its not the end of the world, we can expect some serious financial events because of government deficit spending, the same thing that would happen if we spent more than we had individually (just multiply it by billions of dollars).

What are the Odds that We Will Run Out of Natural Resources?

There are groups of people who believe we will run out of natural resources (iron, wood, water…) fill in your favorite item. This might even apply to food which is more logical as food production varies with weather which is quite hard to predict, much less control. 

Improvements in reducing waste should be made, as well as developing new, lower impact technologies to use resources more wisely, and to recycle existing waste.

The odds are you will get older; so building your home or modifying your home to better fit you as you age is a good investment. Think “Cradle to Cradle” design. For more information see our article: Aging in Place – Making Your Home Livable for a Lifetime

Food Supply Interruption

Two years of even minor interruptions in food production would impact global food prices. Make the interruptions medium or large and it would be equal to or worse than a global economic collapse. This is a serious area of concern. 

What are the Odds of a Major Power Outage Taking Out a Large Section of the Electrical Grid?

In a nutshell unless something changes, brownouts and power outages will spread throughout the US. Regardless of the big events, small interruptions in service are likely and actually likely to get worse given an aging power system. Worse yet power plants being retired far faster than we build new ones. 

Think of it this way, if the electricity isn’t working in your house and you don’t have light, water or heat, it really doesn’t matter why. 

What are the odds in the real world?

When you pile all the possible bad things together the odds keep getting higher and higher that “something” will happen in a 10 year period.  A civil/national war has a 37% chance in 10 years. A hurricane is 92% chance in 10 years. A solar flare is a 6% chance in 10 years. All these increase the likelihood of something bad happening.  This is why there are “force majeure clauses” in every insurance agreement and important agreement.  Shit happens and it is well known but not often discussed.

With all this doom and gloom we should all be dead or know someone who was killed in some awful way. The odds of an event are the NOT the same as the odds of the event impacting you. The odds for a lot of these events are CUT by population and location. Most terrorist events have a local impact only. Hurricanes only hit specific areas. But that is no consolation for those people caught in the events. Plan to be caught in the event, but God willing none of us will be involved. But God gave us a brain, hands and we resources so we need to prepare.

What are MY odds?

Look at your family history. How many times have you or your parents lost a job. What are the economic conditions where you live? How many times have you lived through a minor or major disaster? Use the math and you can estimate how much money, time and resources on preparing. This will give you a realistic estimate of your personal, family and/or community risks.

Predict what is likely. Plan on what to do. And it will Prepare you for those and other events you might not predict.

Personal example: My wife and I had been planning on saving money to buy a new 4wd vehicle and add an outbuilding. I had been gainfully employed sometimes with multiple jobs at once for 20+ years. Then I was laid off unexpectedly during a merger.

  1. Our prediction was to buy a new van and build and outbuilding. We also predicted likely power interruptions, and some minor food supply interruptions.
  2. Our plan was saving money and stocking on up beef (frozen in a chest freezer). Long term our plan was to be more self sufficient, and have enough to survive likely problems and likely natural disasters.
  3. We were prepared for success and some likely events. Then I was laid off. We didn’t plan on that, but the cash and meat in the freezer held us through until I found another job.

No man is worth his salt who is not ready at all times to risk his well-being, to risk his body, to risk his life, in a great cause.

– Theodore Roosevelt

Conclusion

This information may seem overwhelming.  Just focus on preparing the basics. We can’t spend ALL our resources on That will put you ahead of most people. Stockpile food and water, and have extra fuel. Balance all the crazy input with what you know to be reasonable, trust your gut and have a plan.

References

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Prepare

Coronavirus – Everything You Need to Know about Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2)

Updated 3/30/2020: This article covers the basics of Coronavirus Pandemic aka Covid19 aka SARS-CoV-2. We review its symptoms, how dangerous it is, what it will do to the economy, how to avoid it and myths about it.

World wide there are 766,336 cases resulting in 36,873 deaths. USA has 153,246 cases with 2467 deaths. New cases will continue to increase rapidly as more test kits become available.

When this is all said and done I estimate that death rates will be roughly 3x to 5x influenza, not 10x or more as the media has been reporting (that means .3% to as high as .8% not 10%). I base this on sampling data, and it is also supported by the cruise ship data.

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Community

WeAreTheBackupPlan

MISSION

Work to improve our community. Take responsibility for ourselves AND prepare to survive disasters and help others survive.

WHO WE ARE

We are the people who stand up even when we don’t want to, because we know someone must. We are the sheepdogs. We prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We stumble, we fall, we fail, but we get back up again. We share when we probably can’t afford to share. We volunteer quietly and take care of business, even when no one else knows. We are the oath keepers.

WE ARE THE BACKUP PLAN.

“All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope.”

― Winston Churchill

“Human happiness and moral duty are inseparably connected.”

― George Washington